Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32690354›Full record

ReviewPaediatric respiratory reviews2020

Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development.

Emma S McBryde, Michael T Meehan, Oyelola A Adegboye, Adeshina I Adekunle, Jamie M Caldwell, Anton Pak, Diana P Rojas, Bridget M Williams, James M Trauer

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Paediatric respiratory reviews, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
46citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

46 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024
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  4. Assessing the costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical pandemic measures using the economic values of social contacts.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Emma S McBrydeAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia. Electronic address: emma.mcbryde@jcu.edu.au.
Michael T MeehanAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia.
Oyelola A AdegboyeAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia.
Adeshina I AdekunleAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia.
Jamie M CaldwellDepartment of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, United States of America.
Anton PakAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia.
Diana P RojasDepartment of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, United States of America.
Bridget M WilliamsEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.
James M TrauerEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Models have played an important role in policy development to address the COVID-19 outbreak from its emergence in China to the current global pandemic. Early projections of international spread influenced travel restrictions and border closures. Model projections based on the virus's infectiousness demonstrated its pandemic potential, which guided the global response to and prepared countries for increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Tracking the impact of distancing and movement policies and behaviour changes has been critical in evaluating these decisions. Models have provided insights into the epidemiological differences between higher and lower income countries, as well as vulnerable population groups within countries to help design fit-for-purpose policies. Economic evaluation and policies have combined epidemic models and traditional economic models to address the economic consequences of COVID-19, which have informed policy calls for easing restrictions. Social contact and mobility models have allowed evaluation of the pathways to safely relax mobility restrictions and distancing measures. Finally, models can consider future end-game scenarios, including how suppression can be achieved and the impact of different vaccination strategies.

Indexed as

Health PolicyModels, TheoreticalPolicy MakingBetacoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesDeveloping CountriesEpidemiologic MethodsHumansModels, EconomicPandemicsPneumonia, ViralPublic HealthPublic PolicySARS-CoV-2COVID-19 VaccinesViral VaccinesCOVID-19Emerging infectious diseasesMathematical modellingPandemicPublic health policy

Identifiers

PMID32690354
PMCPMC7301791

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.