ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020
The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks in China: a four-year retrospective analysis using extended SEIR models.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Innovative public strategies in response to COVID-19: A review of practices from China.Health care science · 2024Review
- Compliance with measures among actors and lessons learnt in the management of COVID-19 institutional quarantine in Uganda.Heliyon · 2024Article
- A conformable fractional finite difference method for modified mathematical modeling of SAR-CoV-2 (COVID-19) disease.PloS one · 2024Article
- Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- The effect mitigation measures for COVID-19 by a fractional-order SEIHRDP model with individuals migration.ISA transactions · 2023Article
- Timely and effective media coverage's role in the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- A quantitative method to project the probability of the end of an epidemic: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, 2020.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- A switching dynamic model based on phased COVID-19 data in Chongqing and its evaluation.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Review
- Article
- Stability analysis of a nonlocal SIHRDP epidemic model with memory effects.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Review
- Estimating the Number of COVID-19 Cases and Impact of New COVID-19 Variants and Vaccination on the Population in Kerman, Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Activity-based epidemic propagation and contact network scaling in auto-dependent metropolitan areas.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2021Article
- Predictability of COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality based on model estimations to establish proactive protocols of countermeasures.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Experiences of persons in COVID-19 institutional quarantine in Uganda: a qualitative study.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Effects of masks on the transmission of infectious diseases.Advances in difference equations · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum for
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesSince January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult.
methodsSince the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases.
resultsResults show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models.
conclusionsThe uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.