ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020
Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 502 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
502 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 927 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- The prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin-resistance strains using GeneXpert-MTB/RIF assay in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Co-circulating pathogens of humans: a systematic review of mechanistic transmission models.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Pooled it
- Unraveling the HIV-malaria interactions: a bibliometric analysis of global research trends and emerging insights.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Pooled it
- HIV Testing Disruptions and Service Adaptations During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Literature Review.AIDS and behavior · 2024Pooled it
- Availability of malaria diagnostic tests, anti-malarial drugs, and the correctness of treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Malaria journal · 2023Pooled it
- Barriers against and strategies for malaria control during the COVID-19 pandemic in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2023Pooled it
- Estimated economic burden of genital herpes and HIV attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 infections in 90 low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2022Pooled it
- How Central Ugandan HIV Clinics Adapted During COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions to Promote Continuous Access to Care: A Qualitative Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- Food Insecurity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Mixed-Methods Study from a Cohort of HIV Clients in Uganda.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- Impact of COVID-19 on TB and HIV/AIDS severity in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.Dialogues in health · 2026Review
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Treatment Outcomes and Healthcare Utilization Among People Living With HIV in Korea: A Multicenter Cohort Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2026Observational
- Global financing retrenchment threatens the recovery in TB control.IJTLD open · 2026Article
- Article
- Observational
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2 Co-Infection: An Efficient Cell Model to Study Lung Host-Pathogen Interactions.Current protocols · 2026Article
- Mechanisms ofBreathe (Sheffield, England) · 2026Review
- Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis mortality in Japan: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from 2017 to 2022.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Mobility and malaria incidence in Indonesia's low-endemic areas during the COVID-19 period.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- COVID-19 disruptions and spring surges: an interrupted time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnostic challenges in Northeast Iran.Scientific reports · 2026Article
442 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
54 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCOVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years.
methodsAssuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
findingsIn high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics.
interpretationMaintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.