ArticleCanada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada2020
Modelling scenarios of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada.
Article in Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 61 citations in OpenAlex.
- Do COVID-19 Infectious Disease Models Incorporate the Social Determinants of Health? A Systematic Review.Public health reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Enhancing Evidence Synthesis Efficiency: Leveraging Large Language Models and Agentic Workflows for Optimized Literature Screening.Cochrane evidence synthesis and methods · 2025Article
- Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Review
- Methods for conducting a living evidence profile on mpox: An evidence map of the literature.Cochrane evidence synthesis and methods · 2024Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2024Article
- The race to understand immunopathology in COVID-19: Perspectives on the impact of quantitative approaches to understand within-host interactions.Immunoinformatics (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Review
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the death rates from COVID-19 in Canada.Social sciences & humanities open · 2023Article
- Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: what could have happened?Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Predictions from standard epidemiological models of consequences of segregating and isolating vulnerable people into care facilities.PloS one · 2023Article
- Modeling the spatio‑temporal spread of COVID‑19 cases, recoveries and deaths and effects of partial and full vaccination coverage in Canada.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 transmission using IDSIM, an epidemiological-modelling desktop app with multi-level immunization capabilities.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Bistability in deterministic and stochastic SLIAR-type models with imperfect and waning vaccine protection.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Learning models for forecasting hospital resource utilization for COVID-19 patients in Canada.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Population Mobility on Daily COVID-19 Cases: Evidence from Ontario.Canadian public policy. Analyse de politiques · 2022Article
- A semi-parametric mixed model for short-term projection of daily COVID-19 incidence in Canada.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Testing Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies Using an Agent-Based Modeling Approach.SN computer science · 2022Article
- A window of opportunity for intensifying testing and tracing efforts to prevent new COVID-19 outbreaks due to more transmissible variants.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2021Article
- Are COVID-19 models blind to the social determinants of health? A systematic review protocol.BMJ open · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), likely a bat-origin coronavirus, spilled over from wildlife to humans in China in late 2019, manifesting as a respiratory disease. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread initially within China and then globally, resulting in a pandemic.
objectiveThis article describes predictive modelling of COVID-19 in general, and efforts within the Public Health Agency of Canada to model the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian population to support public health decisions.
methodsThe broad objectives of two modelling approaches, 1) an agent-based model and 2) a deterministic compartmental model, are described and a synopsis of studies is illustrated using a model developed in Analytica 5.3 software.
resultsWithout intervention, more than 70% of the Canadian population may become infected. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, applied with an intensity insufficient to cause the epidemic to die out, reduce the attack rate to 50% or less, and the epidemic is longer with a lower peak. If NPIs are lifted early, the epidemic may rebound, resulting in high percentages (more than 70%) of the population affected. If NPIs are applied with intensity high enough to cause the epidemic to die out, the attack rate can be reduced to between 1% and 25% of the population.
conclusionApplying NPIs with intensity high enough to cause the epidemic to die out would seem to be the preferred choice. Lifting disruptive NPIs such as shut-downs must be accompanied by enhancements to other NPIs to prevent new introductions and to identify and control any new transmission chains.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.