ArticleBMC medicine2020
Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January-February, 2020.
Article in BMC medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 87 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the Prevalence, Mortality, and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with Hip Fractures: A Meta-Analysis.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2023Pooled it
- Transmissibility and pathogenicity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2: A systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate and asymptomatic infection.Journal of infection and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.Frontiers in medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Integrated disease model considering mutation-induced infection waves with COVID-19 cases.PloS one · 2026Article
- Picture analysis of billboards and infographic graphics advertising COVID-19 on promoting preventive behaviors and taking vaccination against the Coronavirus disease pandemic.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- Association of carbon monoxide poisonings and carboxyhemoglobin levels with COVID-19 and clinical severity.World journal of methodology · 2023Article
- Insights from establishing a high throughput viral diagnostic laboratory for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing facility: challenges and experiences.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Time-dependent risk of COVID-19 death with overwhelmed health-care capacity in Japan, 2020-2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- The Impact and Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria in Its First Two Years.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the sixteen West African countries.Scientific African · 2022Article
- A novel method to monitor COVID-19 fatality rate in real-time, a key metric to guide public health policy.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Clinical Phenotypes and Mortality Biomarkers: A Study Focused on COVID-19 Patients with Neurological Diseases in Intensive Care Units.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Epidemiologic Parameters for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2022Review
- The Impact of Lockdown, Patient Classification, and the Large-Scale Case Screening on the Spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei.BioMed research international · 2022Article
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- COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies.Journal of personalized medicine · 2021Review
- Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- The impact of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation interventions to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study.Epidemics · 2021Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.
methodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.
resultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.
conclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.
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