ArticleGlobal change biology2020
Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.
Article in Global change biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers.
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Who cites it
53 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multiple Environmental Determinants ofBiology · 2026Article
- Leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance marine biosecurity.Bioscience · 2026Review
- Projecting future damage costs of non-native species using combined dynamical and cost-density equations.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026Article
- Climate-Driven Range Shifts Limit the Role of Non-Native Trees for Adaptation Processes of European Forests.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Celtic Invasive Plants database.Scientific data · 2026Article
- The impacts of biological invasions.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2026Review
- Climatic Niche Dynamics and Potential Distribution of the Invasive Sweet Potato Weevil (Biology · 2026Article
- Climate Change Shapes Suitable Habitat and Ecological Niche Overlap BetweenEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
- Contrasting Responses of a Native Palm and an Invasive Vine to Flooding Stress: Implications for Orchard Regeneration in Caatinga Ecosystems.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Analysis of the Potential Distribution ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Potential Invasive Indo-PacificEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- A dataset on invasive alien plants of European Union concern.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Invasive PlantEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- Expert perceptions of the relative importance of ecological impacts of biological invasions.PloS one · 2026Article
- Climate change may increase the suitable habitats for invasive freshwater cichlids in a Neotropical basin.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Unlocking plant health survey data: An approach to quantify the sensitivity and specificity of visual inspections.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Integrating the thermal dependence of sex ratio into distribution models to predict suitable habitats for the invasive freshwater pond slider turtle,Marine life science & technology · 2025Article
- Halotolerance of Phytoplankton and Invasion Success of Nostocalean Cyanobacteria Under Freshwater Salinization.Microorganisms · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
38 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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