ArticleHealth economics2021
Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data.
Article in Health economics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of Microsimulation Models in Cardiometabolic Disease: Model Calibration and Validation.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Urological cancer statistics on incidence from 1975 to 2019 and mortality from 1958 to 2022 in Japan.International journal of clinical oncology · 2024Review
- Projections of functional dependence among the late middle-aged and older population from 2018-2048 in China: a dynamic microsimulation.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Comorbidity risk and distribution characteristics of chronic diseases in the elderly population in China.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- Projecting prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2022Article
- Examining proximity to death and health care expenditure by disease: a Bayesian-based descriptive statistical analysis from the National Health Insurance database in Japan.Health economics review · 2022Article
- Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data.Health economics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Accurate future projections of population health are imperative to plan for the future healthcare needs of a rapidly aging population. Multistate-transition microsimulation models, such as the U.S. Future Elderly Model, address this need but require high-quality panel data for calibration. We develop an alternative method that relaxes this data requirement, using repeated cross-sectional representative surveys to estimate multistate-transition contingency tables applied to Japan's population. We calculate the birth cohort sex-specific prevalence of comorbidities using five waves of the governmental health surveys. Combining estimated comorbidity prevalence with death record information, we determine the transition probabilities of health statuses. We then construct a virtual Japanese population aged 60 and older as of 2013 and perform a microsimulation to project disease distributions to 2046. Our estimates replicate governmental projections of population pyramids and match the actual prevalence trends of comorbidities and the disease incidence rates reported in epidemiological studies in the past decade. Our future projections of cardiovascular diseases indicate lower prevalence than expected from static models, reflecting recent declining trends in disease incidence and fatality.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.