ArticleVaccines2020
Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses.
Article in Vaccines, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global epidemiology of neonatal herpes: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.Journal of global health · 2026Pooled it
- Estimated global and regional incidence and prevalence of herpes simplex virus infections and genital ulcer disease in 2020: mathematical modelling analyses.Sexually transmitted infections · 2025Pooled it
- Estimated economic burden of genital herpes and HIV attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 infections in 90 low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review, meta-analyses and metaregressions.Sexually transmitted infections · 2021Pooled it
- Projected public health benefits of a hypothetical HSV-1 vaccine in the United States: A mathematical modeling analysis.Science advances · 2026Article
- Mathematical modeling of the population-level impact of hypothetical herpes simplex virus type 2 curative therapy.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Vaccination as a strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis control: a global mathematical modeling analysis.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Summary of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Joint Workshop on Genital Herpes: 3-4 November 2022.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 among the migrant workers in Qatar.Virology journal · 2023Article
- Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Epidemics · 2022Article
- 40 Years after the Registration of Acyclovir: Do We Need New Anti-Herpetic Drugs?International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Review
- Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Review
- Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Diagnosis of Herpes Simplex Virus: Laboratory and Point-of-Care Techniques.Infectious disease reports · 2021Review
- Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.EClinicalMedicine · 2021Article
- Vaccine Development for Herpes Simplex Viruses: A Commentary of Special Issue Editors.Vaccines · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
This study aims to inform herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccine development, licensure, and implementation by delineating the population-level impact of vaccination. Mathematical models were constructed to describe the transmission dynamics in presence of prophylactic or therapeutic vaccines assuming 50% efficacy, with application to the United States. Catch-up prophylactic vaccination will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 58%, incidence rate by 60%, seroprevalence by 21%, and avert yearly as much as 350,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was only 50 by 2050, 34 by prioritizing those aged 15-19 years, 4 by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, 43 by prioritizing women, and 47 by prioritizing men. Therapeutic vaccination of infected adults with symptomatic disease will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 12%, incidence rate by 13%, seroprevalence by 4%, and avert yearly as much as 76,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was eight by 2050, two by prioritizing those aged 15-19 years, three by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, seven by prioritizing men, and ten by prioritizing women. HSV-2 vaccination offers an impactful and cost-effective intervention to prevent genital herpes medical and psychosexual disease burden.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.