ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2020
Quantifying the annual incidence and underestimation of seasonal influenza: A modelling approach.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Disease burden of seasonal influenza in China from 2010 to 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on multiple indicators.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Pooled it
- Estimating the Range and Duration of Post-influenza Symptoms, Conditions, and Diseases.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- The Increased Risk for Postinfluenza Pneumonia Among Cystic Fibrosis Carriers-A Population-Based Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Closing the Gap in Race-based Inequities for Seasonal Influenza Hospitalizations: A Modeling Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Evaluating equity-promoting interventions to prevent race-based inequities in influenza outcomes.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza in preK-12 schools shows school, community, and citywide infections.Water research · 2023Article
- Incidence, Severity, and Mortality of Influenza During 2010-2020 in Korea: A Nationwide Study Based on the Population-Based National Health Insurance Service Database.Journal of Korean medical science · 2023Article
- Mitigating co-circulation of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of vaccination: A mathematical modeling approach.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Influenza-associated in-hospital mortality during the 2017/2018 influenza season: a retrospective multicentre cohort study in central Germany.Infection · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
25 authors at 11 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSeasonal influenza poses a significant public health and economic burden, associated with the outcome of infection and resulting complications. The true burden of the disease is difficult to capture due to the wide range of presentation, from asymptomatic cases to non-respiratory complications such as cardiovascular events, and its seasonal variability. An understanding of the magnitude of the true annual incidence of influenza is important to support prevention and control policy development and to evaluate the impact of preventative measures such as vaccination.
methodsWe use a dynamic disease transmission model, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data, and randomized-controlled trial (RCT) data to quantify the underestimation factor, expansion factor, and symptomatic influenza illnesses in the US and Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons.
resultsBased on 2 case definitions, we estimate between 0.42-3.2% and 0.33-1.2% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. In the US, we estimate between 0.08-0.61% and 0.07-0.33% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. We estimated the symptomatic influenza illnesses in Canada to be 0.32-2.4 million in 2011-2012 and 1.8-8.2 million in 2012-2013. In the US, we estimate the number of symptomatic influenza illnesses to be 4.4-34 million in 2011-2012 and 23-102 million in 2012-2013.
conclusionsWe illustrate that monitoring a representative group within a population may aid in effectively modelling the transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza. In particular, the utilization of RCTs in models may enhance the accuracy of epidemiological parameter estimation.
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