Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32646325›Full record

ArticleStroke2020

Burden of Stroke in Europe: Thirty-Year Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years.

Hatem A Wafa, Charles D A Wolfe, Eva Emmett, Gregory A Roth, Catherine O Johnson, Yanzhong Wang

2 registry-linked trialsOpen access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Stroke, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 386 papers, 15 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
386citing papers in PubMed, 15 pooled it
57.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06763874 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Pilot Study of Usability and Acceptability for the Optimization of a Functional Electrical Stimulator Controlled by Electromyographic Signal for the Rehabilitation of the Upper Limb in Persons Post-stroke

TypeinterventionalSponsorFondazione Don Carlo Gnocchi ETSRan2025 to 2025Enrolled20ConditionsStroke, Healthy Health Care ProfessionalsArmsEMG-based FES device
NCT06928857 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Pilot Study on the Effects Induced by an Electromyographic-controlled Functional Electrical Stimulator (FitFES) for Upper Limb Rehabilitation in Post-stroke Patients

TypeinterventionalSponsorFondazione Don Carlo Gnocchi ETSRan2025 to 2025Enrolled50ConditionsStrokeArmsEMG-based FES rehabilitation, Traditional rehabilitation
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

386 citing papers in PubMed, 15 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 791 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
  8. Pooled it
  9. Pooled it
  10. Pooled it
  11. Pooled it
  12. Pooled it
  13. Pooled it
  14. Pooled it
  15. Pooled it
  16. Trial
  17. Trial
  18. Trial
  19. Trial
  20. Trial

326 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Hatem A WafaSchool of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom (H.A.W., C.D.A.W., E.E., Y.W.).
Charles D A WolfeSchool of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom (H.A.W., C.D.A.W., E.E., Y.W.).
Eva EmmettSchool of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom (H.A.W., C.D.A.W., E.E., Y.W.).
Gregory A RothDepartment of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle (G.A.R.).
Catherine O JohnsonInstitute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Seattle (G.A.R., C.O.J.).
Yanzhong WangSchool of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom (H.A.W., C.D.A.W., E.E., Y.W.).
King's College London · GBInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · USUniversity of Washington · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

background and purposePrediction of stroke impact provides essential information for healthcare planning and priority setting. We aim to estimate 30-year projections of stroke epidemiology in the European Union using multiple modeling approaches.

methodsData on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years in the European Union between 1990 and 2017 were obtained from the global burden of disease study. Their trends over time were modeled using 3 modeling strategies: linear, Poisson, and exponential regressions-adjusted for the gross domestic product per capita, which reflects the impact of economic development on health status. We used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The 30-year projections up to 2047 were estimated using the best fitting models, with inputs on population projections from the United Nations and gross domestic product per capita prospects from the World Bank. The technique was applied separately by age-sex-country groups for each stroke measure.

resultsIn 2017, there were 1.12 million incident strokes in the European Union, 9.53 million stroke survivors, 0.46 million deaths, and 7.06 million disability-adjusted life years lost because of stroke. By 2047, we estimated an additional 40 000 incident strokes (+3%) and 2.58 million prevalent cases (+27%). Conversely, 80 000 fewer deaths (-17%) and 2.31 million fewer disability-adjusted life years lost (-33%) are projected. The largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (average annual percentage change, 0.48% and 0.7% respectively), and the greatest reductions in Portugal (-1.57% and -1.3%). Average annual percentage change in mortality rates will range from -2.86% (Estonia) to -0.08% (Lithuania), and disability-adjusted life years' from -2.77% (Estonia) to -0.23% (Romania).

conclusionsThe number of people living with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the European Union, mainly because of population ageing and improved survival rates. Variations are expected to persist between countries showing opportunities for improvements in prevention and case management particularly in Eastern Europe.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessPersons with DisabilitiesQuality-Adjusted Life YearsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEuropeFemaleForecastingHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, Newbornglobal burden of diseasehealth statusincidenceprevalencestroke

Identifiers

PMID32646325
PMCPMC7382540
OpenAlexW3041174039

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.