Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32638384›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of cancer2021

Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

Patricia A H Hamers, Marloes A G Elferink, Rebecca K Stellato, Cornelis J A Punt, Anne M May, Miriam Koopman, Geraldine R Vink

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of cancer, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  18. An urgent call to raise the bar in oncology.British journal of cancer · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Patricia A H HamersDepartment of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-1703-0121
Marloes A G ElferinkDepartment of Research and Innovation, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Rebecca K StellatoDepartment of Biostatistics and Research Support, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Cornelis J A PuntDepartment of Medical Oncology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Anne M MayDepartment of Epidemiology, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Miriam KoopmanDepartment of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Geraldine R VinkDepartment of Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Reported median overall survival (mOS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients participating in systemic therapy trials has increased to over 30 months. It is uncertain whether trial results translate to real-life populations. Moreover, patients prefer presentation of multiple survival scenarios. Population-based data of all stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which has a case ascertainment completeness surpassing 95%. We calculated the following percentiles (scenarios) of OS per year of diagnosis for the total population, and for treatment subgroups: 10th (best-case), 25th (upper-typical), 50th (median), 75th (lower-typical) and 90th (worst-case). Twenty-five percent of patients did not receive any antitumor treatment. From 2008 to 2016, mOS of the total population (n = 27275) remained unchanged at approximately 12 months. OS improved only for the upper-typical and best-case patients; by 4.2 to 29.1 months (P < .001), and by 6 to 62 months (P < .001), respectively. No clinically relevant change was observed among patients who received systemic therapy, with mOS close to 15 months and best-case scenario approximately 40 months. A clinically relevant improvement in survival over time was observed in patients who initially received metastasectomy and/or HIPEC only. In contrast to the wide belief based on trial data that mOS of mCRC patients receiving systemic therapy has improved substantially, improvement could not be demonstrated in our real-life population. Clinicians should consider quoting multiple survival scenarios based on real-life data instead of point estimates from clinical trials, when informing patients about their life expectancy.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overColorectal NeoplasmsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingNetherlandsPrognosisRegistriesSurvival Analysismetastatic colorectal cancerpopulation-basedprognosisreal-worldscenarios for survival

Identifiers

PMID32638384
PMCPMC7754475

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.