Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32633233›Full record

ArticleeLife2020

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

Philip Arevalo, Huong Q McLean, Edward A Belongia, Sarah Cobey

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 68 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
68citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

68 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  15. Population-level respiratory virus-virus interactions, Puerto Rico, 2013-2023.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025
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8 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Philip ArevaloDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-1237-2314
Huong Q McLeanCenter for Clinical Epidemiology and Population Health, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, United States.
Edward A BelongiaCenter for Clinical Epidemiology and Population Health, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, United States.
Sarah CobeyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States.

Funding

Modeling the Evolutionary Dynamics of Immunity to Influenza for Vaccine DevelopmeDP2AI117921 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI COBEY, SARAH · 2014 to 2014
$2.1M
Identifying determinants of human immunity against influenza: a multiscale approachF32AI145177 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI AREVALO, PHILIP · 2019 to 2020
$131k
NIAID NIH HHS DP2 AI117921NIAID NIH HHS F32 AI145177NIAID NIH HHS HHSN272201400005CNIH HHS HHSN272201400005C
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

Indexed as

Age DistributionAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsCase-Control StudiesChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesHumansIncidenceInfantInfluenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeInfluenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanInfluenza Vaccinesepidemiologyglobal healthhumanimprintinginfectious diseaseinfluenzamicrobiologyoriginal antigenic sinvaccine effectivenessvirus

Identifiers

PMID32633233
PMCPMC7367686

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.