ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 267 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
267 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Meta-analysis of COVID-19 prevalence during preoperative COVID-19 screening in asymptomatic patients.BMJ open · 2022Pooled it
- Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis.PLoS medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Pooled it
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Setting-specific Transmission Rates: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Pooled it
- Trial
- Optimal timing for staged vaccination campaigns: Insights from scenario tree-based stochastic optimization.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Informing optimal testing and isolation strategies across different stages of the diagnostic development pipeline using mathematical models: SARS-CoV-2 in the UK as a case study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Divergent surveillance needs and resource allocation for COVID-19 and influenza: insights from a community-based syndromic surveillance study in Shanghai (2024-2025).Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Eco-physiological and growth responses of two halophytes to saline irrigation and soil amendments in arid conditions.BMC plant biology · 2025Article
- An agent-based model of COVID- 19 in the food industry for assessing public health and economic impacts of infection control strategies.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Influence of Soil Amendment Application on Growth and Yield ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Significance of supervision sampling in control of communicable respiratory disease simulated by a new model during different stages of the disease.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Systematic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 reveals dynamics of variant mutagenesis and transmission in a large urban population.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Ideological Consistency and News Sharing as Predictors of Masking Among College Students.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Routine immunization againstThe Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Willingness to be vaccinated, preventative behaviors, and social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic among US college students.Journal of American college health : J of ACH · 2024Article
- A proactive/reactive mass screening approach with uncertain symptomatic cases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Deviation from the recommended schedule: optimal dosing interval for a two-dose vaccination programme.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
207 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections. We found that the majority of incidences may be attributable to silent transmission from a combination of the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections. Consequently, even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, a vast outbreak may nonetheless unfold. We further quantified the effect of isolating silent infections in addition to symptomatic cases, finding that over one-third of silent infections must be isolated to suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population. Our results indicate that symptom-based isolation must be supplemented by rapid contact tracing and testing that identifies asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, in order to safely lift current restrictions and minimize the risk of resurgence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.