ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2020
Transmission patterns of COVID-19 in the mainland of China and the efficacy of different control strategies: a data- and model-driven study.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 72 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Facilitating the spread prediction of public health emergencies based on spatio-temporal neural network.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Impact of non-pharmacological interventions on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: a large population-based observational study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Observational
- A conformable fractional finite difference method for modified mathematical modeling of SAR-CoV-2 (COVID-19) disease.PloS one · 2024Article
- Effective contact tracing for COVID-19: A systematic review.Global epidemiology · 2023Review
- Analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures: A case study of the outbreak in Urumqi, China in August 2022.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- TransCode: Uncovering COVID-19 transmission patterns via deep learning.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Article
- A swarm-optimizer-assisted simulation and prediction model for emerging infectious diseases based on SEIR.Complex & intelligent systems · 2023Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hohhot, China: a time-varying SQEIAHR model analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The rapid and efficient strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron transmission control: analysis of outbreaks at the city level.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- SEIR-FMi: A coronavirus disease epidemiological model based on intra-city movement, inter-city movement and medical resource investment.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- The Effects of Migration and Limited Medical Resources of the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Model with Two Patches.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Measures to prevent nosocomial transmissions of COVID-19 based on interpersonal contact data.Primary health care research & development · 2022Article
- The change of myopic prevalence in children and adolescents before and after COVID-19 pandemic in Suqian, China.PloS one · 2022Article
- Application of Smartphone Otoscope in Telemedicine in Rural Medical Consortium in Eastern China in the COVID-19 Era.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Establishment and evaluation of a 30-minute detection method for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid using a novel ultra-fast real-time PCR instrument.Journal of thoracic disease · 2021Article
- Modeling the effects of the contaminated environments on COVID-19 transmission in India.Results in physics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China.
methodsAccording to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People's Republic of China during January 10-February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies.
resultsThe cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067-87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16-6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350-61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567-2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020.
conclusionsThe quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.
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