Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32629880›Full record

ArticleViruses2020

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios.

Gergely Röst, Ferenc A Bartha, Norbert Bogya, Péter Boldog, Attila Dénes, Tamás Ferenci, Krisztina J Horváth, Attila Juhász, Csilla Nagy, Tamás Tekeli and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Viruses, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  16. Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021
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  18. Modeling of the Long-Term Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in the United States.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Gergely RöstBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0001-9476-3284
Ferenc A BarthaBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Norbert BogyaBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Péter BoldogBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Attila DénesBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0003-1827-7932
Tamás FerenciPhysiological Controls Research Center, Óbuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary.
Krisztina J HorváthBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Attila JuhászBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Csilla NagyBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Tamás TekeliBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Zsolt ViziBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
Beatrix OrosziBolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusDisease OutbreaksAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19FemaleHumansHungaryInfantInfant, NewbornCOVID-19, epidemic, Hungary, under-ascertainment, SARS-CoV-2, compartmental model, reproduction number, intervention, case fatality rate

Identifiers

PMID32629880
PMCPMC7412537

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.