The Attributable Risk of Smoking on All-Cause Mortality in Korean: A Study Using KNHANES IV-VI (2007-2015) with Mortality Data.

backgroundIt is not evident that the attributable risk of smoking on mortality in Korea has decreased. We investigated the impact of smoking on all-cause mortality and estimated the attributable risk of smoking in Korean adults.

methodsThose aged ≥20 years with smoking history in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES) 2007-2015 were enrolled. We categorized the participants into three groups as follows: never smoker, <20 pack-years (PY) smokers, and ≥20 PY smokers. We applied inverse probability weighting using propensity scores to control various confounders between the groups. All-cause mortality risks were compared between the groups using the Kaplan-Meier log-rank test. The effects of smoking-attributable risks (ARs) on mortality were also calculated.

resultsA total of 50,458 participants were included. Among them, 19,334 (38.3%) were smokers and 31,124 (61.7%) were never smokers. Those with a smoking history of 20 PY or more (≥20 PY smokers), those with a smoking history of less than 20 PY (<20 PY smokers), and never smokers were 18.1%, 20.2%, and 61.7%, respectively, of the study population. Smokers had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to never smokers (log-rank test p<0.01). The ARs of smoking were 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7%-37.9%) and 9.0% (95% CI, 6.1%-12.0%) in males and females, respectively. ARs decreased from 24.2% to 19.5% in males and from 9.5% to 4.1% in females between 2007-2010 and 2011-2015.

conclusionOur study using KNHANES IV-VI data demonstrated that smoking increased the risk of all-cause mortality in a dose-response manner and the ARs of smoking on mortality were 21.8% in males and 9.0% in females during 2007- 2015. This suggests that the ARs of smoking on mortality have decreased since around 2010.