Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32628716›Full record

ArticlePloS one2020

Mobility restrictions for the control of epidemics: When do they work?

Baltazar Espinoza, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Charles Perrings

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 85 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Mobility patterns and COVID growth: Moderating role of country culture.International journal of intercultural relations : IJIR · 2022
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Back to basics: measuring the impact of interventions to limit the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Baltazar EspinozaSimon A. Levin Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-6280-3277
Carlos Castillo-ChavezArizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America.
Charles PerringsSchool of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America.
Arizona State University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMobility restrictions-trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires-are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important in the response to epidemics of SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola (2014) and, currently in the containment of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, they do not always work as expected.

methodsTo determine when mobility restrictions reduce the size of an epidemic, we use a model of disease transmission within and between economically heterogeneous locally connected communities. One community comprises a low-risk, low-density population with access to effective medical resources. The other comprises a high-risk, high-density population without access to effective medical resources.

findingsUnrestricted mobility between the two risk communities increases the number of secondary cases in the low-risk community but reduces the overall epidemic size. By contrast, the imposition of a cordon sanitaire around the high-risk community reduces the number of secondary infections in the low-risk community but increases the overall epidemic size.

interpretationMobility restrictions may not be an effective policy for controlling the spread of an infectious disease if it is assessed by the overall final epidemic size. Patterns of mobility established through the independent mobility and trade decisions of people in both communities may be sufficient to contain epidemics.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19HumansInternational CooperationModels, BiologicalPandemicsPneumonia, ViralQuarantineResidence CharacteristicsSARS-CoV-2TravelUnemployment

Identifiers

PMID32628716
PMCPMC7337314
OpenAlexW3039399227

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.