ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Trade-off between local transmission and long-range dispersal drives infectious disease outbreak size in spatially structured populations.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the impact of outdoor farming, farm size, and farm density on highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemics: A modelling study in the Netherlands.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Optimizing crop clustering to minimize pathogen invasion in agriculture.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Detection of Long-Distance Transmission Events During the CSF Epidemic in Japan Using Whole-Genome-Sequence Data.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Spatial distribution of poultry farms using point pattern modelling: A method to address livestock environmental impacts and disease transmission risks.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Variation in herbivore space use: comparing two savanna ecosystems with different anthrax outbreak patterns in southern Africa.Movement ecology · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal relative risk distribution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in the United States.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Mining relationships between transmission clusters from contact tracing data: An application for investigating COVID-19 outbreak.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2021Article
- Social structure defines spatial transmission of African swine fever in wild boar.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
Transmission of infectious diseases between immobile hosts (e.g., plants, farms) is strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of hosts and the distance-dependent probability of transmission. As the interplay between these factors is poorly understood, we use spatial process and transmission modelling to investigate how epidemic size is shaped by host clustering and spatial range of transmission. We find that for a given degree of clustering and individual-level infectivity, the probability that an epidemic occurs after an introduction is generally higher if transmission is predominantly local. However, local transmission also impedes transfer of the infection to new clusters. A consequence is that the total number of infections is maximal if the range of transmission is intermediate. In highly clustered populations, the infection dynamics is strongly determined by the probability of transmission between clusters of hosts, whereby local clusters act as multiplier of infection. We show that in such populations, a metapopulation model sometimes provides a good approximation of the total epidemic size, using probabilities of local extinction, the final size of infections in local clusters, and probabilities of cluster-to-cluster transmission. As a real-world example we analyse the case of avian influenza transmission between poultry farms in the Netherlands.
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