ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Winter is coming: Pathogen emergence in seasonal environments.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing risks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika transmission associated to Aedes albopictus in Chania, Greece, 2017-2018.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Zika Virus: A Tale of Two Lineages.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The speed of vaccination rollout and the risk of pathogen adaptation.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Italian Medical Professionals' Practices, Attitudes, and Knowledge in Travel Medicine: Protocol for a National Survey.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- An early warning indicator trained on stochastic disease-spreading models with different noises.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of periodicity in treatment coverage.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
- Deux modèles de population dans un environnement périodique lent ou rapide.Journal of mathematical biology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Many infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics driven by periodic fluctuations of the environment. Predicting the risk of pathogen emergence at different points in time is key for the development of effective public health strategies. Here we study the impact of seasonality on the probability of emergence of directly transmitted pathogens under different epidemiological scenarios. We show that when the period of the fluctuation is large relative to the duration of the infection, the probability of emergence varies dramatically with the time at which the pathogen is introduced in the host population. In particular, we identify a new effect of seasonality (the winter is coming effect) where the probability of emergence is vanishingly small even though pathogen transmission is high. We use this theoretical framework to compare the impact of different preventive control strategies on the average probability of emergence. We show that, when pathogen eradication is not attainable, the optimal strategy is to act intensively in a narrow time interval. Interestingly, the optimal control strategy is not always the strategy minimizing R0, the basic reproduction ratio of the pathogen. This theoretical framework is extended to study the probability of emergence of vector borne diseases in seasonal environments and we show how it can be used to improve risk maps of Zika virus emergence.
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