ArticleBiometrics2021
Estimation of incubation period and generation time based on observed length-biased epidemic cohort with censoring for COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Article in Biometrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Incubation Period of COVID-19 Caused by Unique SARS-CoV-2 Strains: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2022Pooled it
- Unlocking the power of time-since-infection models: data augmentation for improved instantaneous reproduction number estimation.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2025Article
- Flexible Bayesian estimation of incubation times.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Two biases in incubation time estimation related to exposure.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Update on Omicron variant and its threat to vulnerable populations.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Evaluation of the EsteR Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support: Sensitivity Analysis and Usability Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- SARS-CoV-2 incubation period across variants of concern, individual factors, and circumstances of infection in France: a case series analysis from the ComCor study.The Lancet. Microbe · 2023Article
- Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Tracking the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying coefficient state-space model.Statistics in medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Using Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and High Isolation of Asymptomatic Carriers to Contain the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar's experience.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- Comparison of epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of different strains of COVID-19 based on the incidence data of all local outbreaks in China as of March 1, 2022.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 during the 2020-2021 winter pandemic wave in North China: An observational study.Journal of medical virology · 2021Observational
- Modeling the effects of the contaminated environments on COVID-19 transmission in India.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Estimation of incubation period and generation time based on observed length-biased epidemic cohort with censoring for COVID-19 outbreak in China.Biometrics · 2021Article
- Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Health science reports · 2021Article
- In pursuit of the right tail for the COVID-19 incubation period.Public health · 2021Review
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Abstract
The incubation period and generation time are key characteristics in the analysis of infectious diseases. The commonly used contact-tracing-based estimation of incubation distribution is highly influenced by the individuals' judgment on the possible date of exposure, and might lead to significant errors. On the other hand, interval censoring-based methods are able to utilize a much larger set of traveling data but may encounter biased sampling problems. The distribution of generation time is usually approximated by observed serial intervals. However, it may result in a biased estimation of generation time, especially when the disease is infectious during incubation. In this paper, the theory from renewal process is partially adopted by considering the incubation period as the interarrival time, and the duration between departure from Wuhan and onset of symptoms as the mixture of forward time and interarrival time with censored intervals. In addition, a consistent estimator for the distribution of generation time based on incubation period and serial interval is proposed for incubation-infectious diseases. A real case application to the current outbreak of COVID-19 is implemented. We find that the incubation period has a median of 8.50 days (95% confidence interval [CI] [7.22; 9.15]). The basic reproduction number in the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak based on the proposed generation time estimation is estimated to be 2.96 (95% CI [2.15; 3.86]).
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