ArticleEFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority2019
Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.
Article in EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Biosecurity governance and on-farm implementation in the European livestock sector: regulatory heterogeneity, assessment tools and evidence gaps - A scoping review.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Without Borders? The Impact of Political Barriers and Land Use on the Animal Health Dynamics and Genetic Structures of Large Game Species in the Carpathian Basin and Surrounding Regions-A Systematic Review.Veterinary sciences · 2026Review
- Modeling the Spatiotemporal Spread and Control of African Swine Fever in the Republic of Korea Using a Patch-Based Stochastic Framework.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Risk scoring of African swine fever transmission in selected provinces of the Philippines.Journal of veterinary science · 2025Article
- Molecular detection of African swine fever virus in pork and pork products and associated risk factors in the Philippines.The Journal of veterinary medical science · 2025Article
- Motivation and Habits of a Wild Boar-Hunting Community.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Risk Assessment and Response Strategy for Pig Epidemics in China.Veterinary sciences · 2023Article
- Risk Factor Impact on African Swine Fever Transmission in Different Extensive Pig Production Settings in Serbia.Viruses · 2023Article
- African Swine Fever Outbreak in an Enclosed Wild Boar Hunting Ground in Serbia.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Management of a Focal Introduction of ASF Virus in Wild Boar: The Belgian Experience.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The First Eighteen Months of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Saxony, Germany and Latvia-A Comparison.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Semi-quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever virus introduction in pig farms.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Survey of wild boar hunter interactions with pig farming in central Europe.Veterinary medicine and science · 2023Article
- A Novel Tool to Assess the Risk for African Swine Fever in Hunting Environments: The Balkan Experience.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The perceptions of Lithuanian hunters towards African swine fever using a participatory approach.BMC veterinary research · 2022Article
- Exploring the hurdles that remain for control of African swine fever in smallholder farming settings.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Lithuanian Domestic Pigs in 2019.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2022Article
- Network analysis of live pig movements in North Macedonia: Pathways for disease spread.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2022Article
- African Swine Fever Re-Emerging in Estonia: The Role of Seropositive Wild Boar from an Epidemiological Perspective.Viruses · 2021Article
- Ability of different matrices to transmit African swine fever virus.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
29 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.
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