ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 232 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
232 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Estimating vaccine efficacy during open-label follow-up of COVID-19 vaccine trials based on population-level surveillance data.Epidemics · 2024Trial
- Antimony 3: Extending human-readable model definitions for SBML Level 3 Core and Packages.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A Fokker-Planck framework for control of epidemics.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Detecting changepoints in dynamical systems: Modeling time-varying transmission of seasonal influenza.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Antimony 3: Extending human-readable model definitions for SBML Level 3 Core and Packages.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Optimising pandemic response through vaccination strategies using neural networks.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling and inference of mixed dynamics and detection of causal emergent features.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Mathematical modelling for vaccine efficacy trials during the future epidemics of emerging respiratory infections.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Interpreting epidemiological surveillance data: a modelling study based on Pune city.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The tale of two assumptions: incorporating healthcare-seeking behaviour in epidemic forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- On the dynamics of a COVID-19 model with vaccination and social processes.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Models for SARS-CoV-2 health policies: social distancing amid vaccination and virus variants.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Assessing Public Health Capacity for Infectious Disease Modeling: A Qualitative Study of State and Local Agencies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Deliberation in Guesstimation.Cognitive science · 2025Article
172 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.