Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

Background The aim of the study was to assess the proportion of women that would be classified as at above-average risk of breast cancer based on the 10 year-risk prediction of the Slovenian breast cancer incidence rate (S-IBIS) program in two presumably above-average breast cancer risk populations in age group 40-49 years: (i) women referred for any reason to diagnostic breast centres and (ii) women who were diagnosed with breast cancer aged 40-49 years. Breast cancer is the commonest female cancer in Slovenia, with an incidence rate below European average. The Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk assessment algorithm was recently adapted to S-IBIS. In Slovenia a tailored mammographic screening for women at above average risk in age group 40-49 years is considered in the future. S-IBIS is a possible tool to select population at above-average risk of breast cancer for tailored screening. Patients and methods In 357 healthy women aged 40-49 years referred for any reason to diagnostic breast centres and in 367 female breast cancer patients aged 40-49 years at time of diagnosis 10-years breast cancer risk was calculated using the S-IBIS software. The proportion of women classified as above-average risk of breast cancer was calculated for each subgroup of the study population. Results 48.7% of women in the Breast centre group and 39.2% of patients in the breast cancer group had above-average 10-year breast cancer risk. Positive family history of breast cancer was more prevalent in the Breast centre group (p < 0.05). Conclusions Inclusion of additional risk factors into the S-IBIS is warranted in the populations with breast cancer incidence below European average to reliably stratify women into breast cancer risk groups.