Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32613411›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2020

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures.

J A Kanis, H Johansson, N C Harvey, V Gudnason, G Sigurdsson, K Siggeirsdottir, M Lorentzon, E Liu, L Vandenput, E V McCloskey

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In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
8.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 84 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Guideline
  2. Guideline
  3. Guideline
  4. Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2022
    Pooled it
  5. Guideline
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Effect of FRAXplus adjustments on fracture risk reclassification in older Swedish women-results from the SUPERB-study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
    Article
  11. Review
  12. Non-osteoporotic fractures are associated with increased risk of subsequent major osteoporotic fractures.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
  13. Review
  14. The significance of recent fracture location for imminent risk of hip and vertebral fractures-a nationwide cohort study on older adults in Sweden.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
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  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

J A KanisMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia. w.j.pontefract@shef.ac.uk.
H JohanssonMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
N C HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
V GudnasonIcelandic Heart Association Research Institute, Kopavogur, Iceland.
G SigurdssonIcelandic Heart Association Research Institute, Kopavogur, Iceland.
K SiggeirsdottirIcelandic Heart Association Research Institute, Kopavogur, Iceland.
M LorentzonMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
E LiuMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
L VandenputMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
E V McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
Australian Catholic University · AUIcelandic Heart Association · ISUniversity of Sheffield · GBNIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre · GBUniversity of Gothenburg · SE

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_12011/1Medical Research Council MR/P020941/1Versus Arthritis 17702Versus Arthritis 21231
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture.

introductionThe recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX.

methodsThe study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

resultsProbability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures.

conclusionThe probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

Indexed as

Hip FracturesOsteoporotic FracturesFemaleHumansIcelandMaleProbabilityRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsFracture probabilityFRAX adjustmentImminent riskPrior fractureRisk assessmentSentinel fracture

Identifiers

PMID32613411
PMCPMC7116089
OpenAlexW3040343646

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.