ArticlePeerJ2020
Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies.
Article in PeerJ, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Factors influencing trust in algorithmic decision-making: an indirect scenario-based experiment.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2024Article
- ModInterv COVID-19: An online platform to monitor the evolution of epidemic curves.Applied soft computing · 2023Article
- A hierarchical Bayesian approach for modeling the evolution of the 7-day moving average of the number of deaths by COVID-19.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- The distribution of COVID-19 mortality.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Increased Incidence of Obesity in Children and Adolescents Post-COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review Article.Cureus · 2022Review
- Article
- Using GAM functions and Markov-Switching models in an evaluation framework to assess countries' performance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Piecewise Modeling the Accumulated Daily Growth of COVID-19 Deaths: The Case of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Article
- Early Detection of COVID-19 Waves From Cases in a Neighboring Country With an Open Border.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- The κ-statistics approach to epidemiology.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Quantifying the effects of quarantine using an IBM SEIR model on scalefree networks.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Generalized Richards model for predicting COVID-19 dynamics in Saudi Arabia based on particle swarm optimization Algorithm.AIMS public health · 2020Article
- City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil.PloS one · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to May 8, 2020. Countries selected for analysis with the RGM were China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Spain. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of the other above countries, which supposedly are in the middle or towards the end of the outbreak at the time of this writing. We also analysed the case of Brazil, which is in an initial sub-exponential growth regime, and so we used the generalised growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy of the outbreak to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.
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