Observational studyJAMA internal medicine2020
Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020.
Observational study in JAMA internal medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06844227 (Perioperative Anticoagulant Use for Surgery Evaluation -Virtual Visit), which is not on this map. Cited by 273 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Perioperative Anticoagulant Use for Surgery Evaluation -Virtual Visit (PAUSE-Virtual), a Simple Perioperative Anticoagulant Management Approach, Replacing a Resource-intensive In-person Doctor-patient Consultation, With a Simple Virtual Care Model That Will Provide a New Standard of Care for Patients on a Direct Oral Anticoagulant or Warfarin and Require Elective Surgery/Procedure.
Who cites it
273 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The global evolution of mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.Journal of affective disorders · 2022Pooled it
- Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.International journal of epidemiology · 2022Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Challenges faced by families of critically ill patients during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Patient education and counseling · 2022Trial
- Excess Mortality Among People with HIV in Florida During the Initial Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Surveillance-Based Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Same household, different choices: variation in health behaviors related to respiratory viruses in Illinois.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States.Science advances · 2026Article
- Lower Mortality Associated With Preemptive Health System Resource Reallocation During COVID-19: A Longitudinal Study in 85 Countries.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness · 2026Article
- Global Assessment of COVID-19 Mortality Displacement From 2020 to 2024.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Trends and disparities in mortality from infective endocarditis in the United States, 1999-2023: a nationwide analysis.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2026Article
- Time series analysis of impact of COVID-19 on infant and neonatal mortality in the United States.Pediatric research · 2026Article
- Unraveling the Mystery: COVID-19 and Diabetic Complications - A Journey from Pathophysiology to Treatment.Current diabetes reviews · 2026Review
- Changes in cancer-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in Nevada.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality and child mortality in a population cohort of Iganga Mayuge HDSS in Eastern Uganda (2015-2021).Population health metrics · 2025Article
- REACH-OUT: Race, Ethnicity, and Air Pollution in COVID-19 Hospitalization OUTcomes.Research report (Health Effects Institute) · 2025Article
- Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multimodel approach.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- A Bayesian spatial-temporal varying coefficients model for estimating excess deaths associated with respiratory infections.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Rolling Surveillance Methods in Context of Prior Aberrations: A Simulation Study With Routine Data From Low- and Middle-Income Countries.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Regional variations in Italy's COVID-19 death toll: a descriptive analysis of excess mortality and associated factors from 2020 to 2021.Population health metrics · 2025Article
213 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Importance: Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19. Objective: To estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020. Design, Setting, and Population: This observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Increases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data. Results: There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19-reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.
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Registered trials
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