Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32596456›Full record

ArticleScience advances2020

The value of what's to come: Neural mechanisms coupling prediction error and the utility of anticipation.

Kiyohito Iigaya, Tobias U Hauser, Zeb Kurth-Nelson, John P O'Doherty, Peter Dayan, Raymond J Dolan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Addressing Altered Anticipation as a Transdiagnostic Target Through Computational Psychiatry.Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging · 2025
    Review
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Temporal context effects on suboptimal choice.Psychonomic bulletin & review · 2024
    Article
  11. Article
  12. The Role of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Spatial Margin of Safety Calculations.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2024
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. The non-unitary nature of information preference.Psychonomic bulletin & review · 2023
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Kiyohito IigayaMax-Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, 10-12 Russell Square, London WC1B 5EH, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4748-8432
Tobias U HauserMax-Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, 10-12 Russell Square, London WC1B 5EH, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7997-8137
Zeb Kurth-NelsonMax-Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, 10-12 Russell Square, London WC1B 5EH, UK.
John P O'DohertyDivision of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E California Blvd, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Peter DayanMax-Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, 10-12 Russell Square, London WC1B 5EH, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3476-1839
Raymond J DolanMax-Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, 10-12 Russell Square, London WC1B 5EH, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9356-761X

Funding

MRF_ MRF-160-0003-ELP-HAUSEWellcome Trust 211155/Z/18/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Having something to look forward to is a keystone of well-being. Anticipation of future reward, such as an upcoming vacation, can often be more gratifying than the experience itself. Theories suggest the utility of anticipation underpins various behaviors, ranging from beneficial information-seeking to harmful addiction. However, how neural systems compute anticipatory utility remains unclear. We analyzed the brain activity of human participants as they performed a task involving choosing whether to receive information predictive of future pleasant outcomes. Using a computational model, we show three brain regions orchestrate anticipatory utility. Specifically, ventromedial prefrontal cortex tracks the value of anticipatory utility, dopaminergic midbrain correlates with information that enhances anticipation, while sustained hippocampal activity mediates a functional coupling between these regions. Our findings suggest a previously unidentified neural underpinning for anticipation's influence over decision-making and unify a range of phenomena associated with risk and time-delay preference.

Identifiers

PMID32596456
PMCPMC7304967

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.