Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32586761›Full record

ArticleVaccine2020

The impact of maternal RSV vaccine to protect infants in Gavi-supported countries: Estimates from two models.

Ranju Baral, Xiao Li, Lander Willem, Marina Antillon, Alba Vilajeliu, Mark Jit, Philippe Beutels, Clint Pecenka

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.5field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.

Ranju BaralPATH, PO Box 900922, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA. Electronic address: rbaral@path.org.
Xiao LiCentre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1 - 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Lander WillemCentre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1 - 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Marina AntillonCentre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1 - 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium; University of Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 61, 4056 Basel, Switzerland; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051 Basel, Switzerland.
Alba VilajeliuIndependent consultant, 3073 Cleveland Ave NW, Washington, DC 20008, USA.
Mark JitDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom; Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom; School of Public Health, Patrick Manson Building, 7 Sassoon Road, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Philippe BeutelsCentre for Health Economics Research & Modelling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1 - 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Clint PecenkaPATH, PO Box 900922, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA.
Infectious Diseases Institute · UGProgram for Appropriate Technology in Health · USIndependent Sector · USSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute · CHUniversity of London · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundInterventions to protect young infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in advanced phases of development and are expected to be available in the foreseeable future. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, included maternal vaccines and infant monoclonal antibodies for RSV as part of the 2018 vaccine investment strategy (VIS) and decided to support these products subject to licensure, World Health Organization prequalification, Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recommendation, and meeting the financial assumptions used as the basis of the investment case. Impact estimates reported in this manuscript were used to inform the Gavi VIS.

methodsWe compared two independent vaccine impact models to evaluate a potential maternal RSV vaccine's impact on infant health in 73 Gavi-supported countries. Key inputs were harmonized across both models. We analyzed various scenarios to evaluate the effect of uncertain model parameters such as vaccine efficacy, duration of infant protection, and infant disease burden. Estimates of averted cases, severe cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated over the 2023-2035 horizon.

findingsA maternal RSV vaccine with 60% efficacy offering 5 months of infant protection implemented across 73 low- and middle-income countries could avert 10.1-12.5 million cases, 2.8-4.0 million hospitalizations, 123.7-177.7 thousand deaths, and 8.5-11.9 million DALYs among infants under 6 months of age for the duration of analysis (2023-2035). Maternal RSV vaccination was projected to avert up to 42% of estimated RSV deaths among infants under 6 months in year 2035. Alternative scenario analyses with higher disease burden assumptions showed that a maternal vaccine could avert as many as 325-355 thousand deaths among infants under 6 months.

interpretationRSV maternal immunization is projected to substantially reduce mortality and morbidity among young infants if introduced across Gavi-supported countries.

fundingThis work was supported by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe. The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation or of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium. LW is supported by Research Foundation-Flanders (1234620 N).

Indexed as

Respiratory Syncytial Virus, HumanRespiratory Syncytial Virus InfectionsRespiratory Syncytial Virus VaccinesCost-Benefit AnalysisEuropeHumansInfantQuality-Adjusted Life YearsRespiratory Syncytial Virus VaccinesChild healthGavi, the Vaccine AllianceHealth impactMaternal RSV vaccineRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

Identifiers

PMID32586761
PMCPMC7342012
OpenAlexW3036297873

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.