ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2020
Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986-1990.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections.Science advances · 2023Article
- Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics.Nature communications · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Predicting arbovirus re-emergence remains challenging in regions with limited off-season transmission and intermittent epidemics. Current mathematical models treat the depletion and replenishment of susceptible (non-immune) hosts as the principal drivers of re-emergence, based on established understanding of highly transmissible childhood diseases with frequent epidemics. We extend an analytical approach to determine the number of 'skip' years preceding re-emergence for diseases with continuous seasonal transmission, population growth and under-reporting. Re-emergence times are shown to be highly sensitive to small changes in low
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.