ArticleFrontiers in public health2020
A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 105 papers.
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105 citing papers in PubMed, 336 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Public health interventions for developing resilience to contagious diseases: a system dynamics approach.Health care management science · 2025Article
- A history-dependent approach for accurate initial condition estimation in epidemic models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Incorporating Additional Evidence as Prior Information to Resolve Non-Identifiability in Bayesian Disease Model Calibration: A Tutorial.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Overcoming bias in estimating epidemiological parameters with realistic history-dependent disease spread dynamics.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Epidemiology: Gray immunity model gives qualitatively different predictions.Journal of biosciences · 2024Article
- On modes of disease transmission and the hidden shape of pandemics: A review ofVirus evolution · 2024Article
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- Neural parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification for epidemic forecasting.PloS one · 2024Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2024Article
- On-site airborne pathogen detection for infection risk mitigation.Chemical Society reviews · 2023Review
- Data-Driven Deep Learning Neural Networks for Predicting the Number of Individuals Infected by COVID-19 Omicron Variant.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A comparative study of compartmental models for COVID-19 transmission in Ontario, Canada.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Population-Level Immunity for Transient Suppression of COVID-19 Waves in Japan from April 2021 to September 2022.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Value of information analysis for pandemic response: intensive care unit preparedness at the onset of COVID-19.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Real-time estimation and forecasting of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Wisconsin HERC regions for public health decision making processes.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Modeling Consequences of COVID-19 and Assessing Its Epidemiological Parameters: A System Dynamics Approach.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Pyfectious: An individual-level simulator to discover optimal containment policies for epidemic diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- A swarm-optimizer-assisted simulation and prediction model for emerging infectious diseases based on SEIR.Complex & intelligent systems · 2023Article
45 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and the number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 24, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and the uncertainty of the different parameters, namely, the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the initial number of exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infectious periods, and the fatality rate. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model by varying the parameters and initial conditions (in order for the epidemic to start, there should be at least one exposed or one infectious human). Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constrain the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, with a reproduction ratio
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.