ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020
Estimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.Yonsei medical journal · 2023Review
- Bayesian SIR model with change points with application to the Omicron wave in Singapore.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of the impact of Omicron variant on the COVID-19 situation in South Korea.Genomics & informatics · 2022Article
- Incorporating global dynamics to improve the accuracy of disease models: Example of a COVID-19 SIR model.PloS one · 2022Article
- Epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics of COVID-19 in Rwanda.Global epidemiology · 2021Article
- Sparse HP filter: Finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate.Journal of econometrics · 2021Article
- Discussion on selecting the number of breaks in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 (a reply to Zhao and Liang).International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Article
- A re-analysis to identify the structural breaks in COVID-19 transmissibility during the early phase of the outbreak in South Korea.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Article
- Risk Interactions of Coronavirus Infection across Age Groups after the Peak of COVID-19 Epidemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesAmid the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, South Korea has been lauded for successfully preventing the spread of this infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. This study was performed to evaluate the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea considering the potential impact of policy interventions on transmission rates.
methodsA SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model with a breakpoint that allows a change in transmission rate at an unknown point was established. Estimated trajectories of COVID-19 from SIR models with and without a breakpoint were compared.
resultsThe proposed model with a break fitted the actual series of infection cases much better than the classic model. The estimated breakpoint was March 7, 2020 and the transmission rate dropped by 0.23 after the breakpoint. A counterfactual study based on our estimate indicated that the number of infected could have reached 2 500 000 compared to the peak of 8000 in the observed series.
conclusionsIt is critical to consider a change in the transmission rate to evaluate the trajectory of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our estimation and counterfactual experiments indicate that public health interventions may play a role in determining the pattern of spread of infectious diseases.
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