ArticleJournal of Korean medical science2020
Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Article in Journal of Korean medical science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- An approach to assess the impact of measures mitigating burden associated with COVID-19 in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia).Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Lessons of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Ambulance Service in Kazakhstan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- A New Auto-Regressive Multi-Variable Modified Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction: A Case Study with Application to COVID-19 Pandemics.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Agent-Based Modeling.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023Article
- Article
- Borough-level COVID-19 forecasting in London using deep learning techniques and a novel MSE-Moran's I loss function.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Comparison between SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative pneumonia in children: A retrospective analysis at the beginning of the pandemic.World journal of experimental medicine · 2022Article
- Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Spatial variation and hotspot detection of COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan, 2020.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2021Article
- Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Health science reports · 2021Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 pandemics in Kazakhstan.Journal of research in health sciences · 2021Article
- Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and virologic features of COVID-19 patients in Kazakhstan: A nation-wide retrospective cohort study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Article
- Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Clinical Features of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan.Journal of Korean medical science · 2020Article
- Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic entered Kazakhstan on 13 March 2020 and quickly spread over its territory. This study aimed at reporting on the rates of COVID-19 in the country and at making prognoses on cases, deaths, and recoveries through predictive modeling. Also, we attempted to forecast the needs in professional workforce depending on implementation of quarantine measures.
methodsWe calculated both national and local incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates, and made forecast modeling via classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. The Health Workforce Estimator tool was utilized for forecast modeling of health care workers capacity.
resultsThe vast majority of symptomatic patients had mild disease manifestations and the proportion of moderate disease was around 10%. According to the SEIR model, there will be 156 thousand hospitalized patients due to severe illness and 15.47 thousand deaths at the peak of an outbreak if no measures are implemented. Besides, this will substantially increase the need in professional medical workforce. Still, 50% compliance with quarantine may possibly reduce the deaths up to 3.75 thousand cases and the number of hospitalized up to 9.31 thousand cases at the peak.
conclusionThe outcomes of our study could be of interest for policymakers as they help to forecast the trends of COVID-19 outbreak, the demands for professional workforce, and to estimate the consequences of quarantine measures.
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