ArticleComputers & chemical engineering2020
A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic.
Article in Computers & chemical engineering, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.Health care management science · 2023Article
- Strategic planning for the optimal distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2023Article
- Dynamic fair balancing of COVID-19 patients over hospitals based on forecasts of bed occupancy.Omega · 2023Article
- COVID-19: Data-Driven optimal allocation of ventilator supply under uncertainty and risk.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
- Health and environment from adaptation to adaptivity: a situated relational account.History and philosophy of the life sciences · 2022Article
- Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning-A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Interpretable deep learning for the prediction of ICU admission likelihood and mortality of COVID-19 patients.PeerJ. Computer science · 2022Article
- Hospital preparedness during epidemics using simulation: the case of COVID-19.Central European journal of operations research · 2022Article
- Riding the waves of COVID-19 pandemics - A call for a multiobjective compromise.Trends in anaesthesia & critical care · 2021Article
- Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 bed occupancy in wards and Intensive Care Units.Health care management science · 2021Article
- Modeling and staged assessments of the controllability of spread for repeated outbreaks of COVID-19.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
- Comparison of an artificial neural network and Gompertz model for predicting the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19 in México.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
- Patient Flow Dynamics in Hospital Systems During Times of COVID-19: Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Analysis.Frontiers in public healthArticle
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The different stages of Covid-19 pandemic can be described by two key-variables: ICU patients and deaths in hospitals. We propose simple models that can be used by medical doctors and decision makers to predict the trends on both short-term and long-term horizons. Daily updates of the models with real data allow forecasting some key indicators for decision-making (an Excel file in the Supplemental material allows computing them). These are beds allocation, residence time, doubling time, rate of renewal, maximum daily rate of change (positive/negative), halfway points, maximum plateaus, asymptotic conditions, and dates and time intervals when some key thresholds are overtaken. Doubling time of ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency can be as low as 2-3 days at the outbreak of the pandemic. The models allow identifying the possible departure of the phenomenon from the predicted trend and thus can play the role of early warning systems and describe further outbreaks.
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