Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32565540›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of cancer2020

Machine learning-based lifetime breast cancer risk reclassification compared with the BOADICEA model: impact on screening recommendations.

Chang Ming, Valeria Viassolo, Nicole Probst-Hensch, Ivo D Dinov, Pierre O Chappuis, Maria C Katapodi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of cancer, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning Risk Prediction Models for Advanced Breast Cancer.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
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  11. Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning Risk Prediction Models for Surveillance Benefits and Failures in Breast Cancer Survivors.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Chang MingDepartment of Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. chang.ming@unibas.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2817-3865
Valeria ViassoloOncogenetics and Cancer Prevention, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Nicole Probst-HenschSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Ivo D DinovDepartment of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Pierre O Chappuis *Oncogenetics and Cancer Prevention, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Maria C Katapodi *Department of Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) 1734853, 1636840, 1416953, 0716055 and 1023115
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe clinical utility of machine-learning (ML) algorithms for breast cancer risk prediction and screening practices is unknown. We compared classification of lifetime breast cancer risk based on ML and the BOADICEA model. We explored the differences in risk classification and their clinical impact on screening practices.

methodsWe used three different ML algorithms and the BOADICEA model to estimate lifetime breast cancer risk in a sample of 112,587 individuals from 2481 families from the Oncogenetic Unit, Geneva University Hospitals. Performance of algorithms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC) curve. Risk reclassification was compared for 36,146 breast cancer-free women of ages 20-80. The impact on recommendations for mammography surveillance was based on the Swiss Surveillance Protocol.

resultsThe predictive accuracy of ML-based algorithms (0.843 ≤ AU-ROC ≤ 0.889) was superior to BOADICEA (AU-ROC = 0.639) and reclassified 35.3% of women in different risk categories. The largest reclassification (20.8%) was observed in women characterised as 'near population' risk by BOADICEA. Reclassification had the largest impact on screening practices of women younger than 50.

conclusionML-based reclassification of lifetime breast cancer risk occurred in approximately one in three women. Reclassification is important for younger women because it impacts clinical decision- making for the initiation of screening.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdultAgedBreast NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerFemaleHumansMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRiskYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID32565540
PMCPMC7463251

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.