Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32564368›Full record

SynthesisClinical pharmacology and therapeutics2020

Relationship Between Progression-Free Survival, Objective Response Rate, and Overall Survival in Clinical Trials of PD-1/PD-L1 Immune Checkpoint Blockade: A Meta-Analysis.

Jiabu Ye, Xiang Ji, Phillip A Dennis, Hesham Abdullah, Pralay Mukhopadhyay

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jiabu YeAstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
Xiang JiAstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
Phillip A DennisAstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
Hesham AbdullahAstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
Pralay MukhopadhyayAstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

PD-1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has improved overall survival (OS) in solid tumor trials; however, parallel improvements in Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR), are not always observed. Here, we assess the surrogacy of PFS/ORR for OS with ICB therapy across advanced/metastatic tumors. In a trial-level analysis (N = 40 randomized trials), PFS, ORR, and OS treatment effects were correlated (Spearman's rho). In a patient-level analysis, data were extracted from available trials of durvalumab; the correlation of PFS and OS was evaluated (Bayesian normal-induced-copula-estimation model) and the ordinal association between objective response and OS hazard ratio (HR) were assessed with concordance index measures. High correlation was observed between PFS HR and OS HR in intention-to-treat (ITT; rho = 0.76) and PD-L1-enriched populations (0.74); modest (or limited) benefit in PFS was associated with meaningful improvement in OS. Moderate correlations were observed between ΔORR and OS HR: ITT, -0.63; PD-L1-enriched, -0.53. At the patient level, a positive association was observed between PFS and OS in non-small cell lung cancer (Kendall's Tau = 0.793; 95% confidence interval, 0.789-0.797), head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (0.794; 0.789-0.798), and bladder cancer (0.872; 0.869-0.875). Objective responders had significantly better OS (concordance index > 0.9) than nonresponders across these tumor types. Modest (or limited) improvement in RECIST-based end points did not rule out meaningful OS benefit, indicating they are imperfect surrogates and do not fully capture ICB clinical benefit. Therefore, caution is advised when basing early discontinuation of novel ICB agents on these end points.

Indexed as

B7-H1 AntigenEndpoint DeterminationHumansImmune Checkpoint InhibitorsNeoplasmsProgrammed Cell Death 1 ReceptorProgression-Free SurvivalRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicResponse Evaluation Criteria in Solid TumorsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTime FactorsB7-H1 AntigenCD274 protein, humanImmune Checkpoint InhibitorsPDCD1 protein, humanProgrammed Cell Death 1 Receptor

Identifiers

PMID32564368
PMCPMC7689755

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.