Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32563224›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of health policy and management2020

How Useful Are Early Economic Models? Comment on "Problems and Promises of Health Technologies: The Role of Early Health Economic Modelling".

James Love-Koh

Abstract readComment
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of health policy and management, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Headroom Analysis for Early Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.Applied health economics and health policy · 2023
    Pooled it
  2. Cost-Effectiveness of Personalised Nutrition in Adults With Overweight and Obesity: PREVENTOMICS Studies in Poland and the UK.Journal of human nutrition and dietetics : the official journal of the British Dietetic Association · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

James Love-KohCentre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9009-5346

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early economic modelling has long been recommended to aid research and development (R&D) decisions in medical innovation, although they are less frequently published and critically appraised. A review of 30 innovations by Grutters et al provides an opportunity to evaluate how early models are used in practice. The evidence of early models can be used to inform two types of decision: to continue development ("stop or go") or to alter future R&D activities. I argue that early models have limited use in stop or go decisions, as less resource and data undermine the reliability of the models' indicative estimates of cost-effectiveness. Whilst they are far more useful for informing future R&D directions, the best techniques available from statistical decision science, such as value of information analysis, are not regularly used. It is highly recommended that early models adopt these methods to best deal with uncertainty, quantify the potential value of further research, identify areas of study with the greatest potential benefit and generate recommendations on study design and sample size.

Indexed as

Models, EconomicCost-Benefit AnalysisHumansReproducibility of ResultsCost-Effectiveness AnalysisDecision ModellingEarly ModelEconomic Evaluation

Identifiers

PMID32563224
PMCPMC7306112

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.