ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020
Use of the prevented fraction for the population to determine deaths averted by existing prevalence of physical activity: a descriptive study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- What makes community-based, multilevel physical activity promotion last? A systematic review with narrative synthesis on factors for sustainable implementation.Perspectives in public health · 2025Pooled it
- The effect of Ba Duan Jin exercise intervention on cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Barriers and facilitators to implementing community-based physical activity interventions: a qualitative systematic review.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2021Pooled it
- Genetic variants related to physical activity or sedentary behaviour: a systematic review.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2021Pooled it
- Global and regional burden of cardiovascular diseases due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2045: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021.Internal and emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Global disparities in realized stroke prevention attributable to antihypertensive treatment: a population-level analysis of 198 countries, 1990-2019.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer attributable to central obesity: a population attributable fraction analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Conscious Initiation to Promote Physical Activity: A Behavioral Experiment and A Randomized Controlled Trial Intervention.International journal of behavioral medicine · 2026Article
- Observational
- Effects of exercise snacks on physical and mental health among sedentary students: a randomized controlled trial study protocol.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- A Fully Expert Human-Based Retrieval Augmented Generation (FEH-RAG) Framework: A Proof of Concept Study in Labelling Patients with Sjögren Syndrome.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2026Article
- Sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: A prospective cohort study.International journal of nursing studies advances · 2025Article
- Short bouts of accumulated exercise: Review and consensus statement on definition, efficacy, feasibility, practical applications, and future directions.Journal of sport and health science · 2025Article
- Evaluation of the NHS active 10 walking app intervention through time-series analysis in 201,688 individuals.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Evaluating population attributable fractions of cardiovascular diseases in relation to 20-year body mass index; the ATTICA study (2002-2022).International journal of obesity (2005) · 2025Article
- Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Article
- Positive Childhood Experiences and Adult Health and Opportunity Outcomes in 4 US States.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Changes in Physical Activity, Heart Rate, and Sleep Measured by Activity Trackers During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across 34 Countries: Retrospective Analysis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Changes in the Perceptions of the Neighborhood Environment and Physical Activity Patterns Among Mexican Americans on the Texas-Mexico Border.Journal of physical activity & health · 2024Article
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDisease and mortality burdens of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are often reported. In contrast, the positive narrative around the burdens that an existing behaviour have averted is rarely acknowledged. We aimed to estimate the prevented fraction for the population (PFP) for premature mortality averted by physical activity on a global scale.
methodsIn this descriptive study, we obtained previously published data on physical activity prevalence (2001-16) and relative risks of all-cause mortality for 168 countries. We combined the data in Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate country-specific, mean PFP values, corresponding to percentage of mortality averted, and their 95% CIs. High prevented fractions indicated an increased proportion of deaths averted due to physical activity. Using mortality data for all people in a country aged 40-74 years, we estimated the number of premature deaths averted for all adults and by gender. We present the median and range of the prevented fractions globally, by WHO region, and by World Bank income classification.
findingsThe global median PFP was 15·0% (range 6·6-20·5), conservatively equating to 3·9 million (95% CI 2·5-5·6) premature deaths averted annually. The African region had the highest median prevented fraction (16·6% [range 12·1-20·5]) and the Americas had the lowest (13·1% [10·8-16·6]). Low-income countries tended to have higher prevented fractions (group median 17·9% [12·3-20·5]) than high-income countries (14·1% [6·6-17·8]). Globally, the median prevented fraction was higher for men (16·0% [7·8-20·7] than women (14·1% [5·0-20·4]).
interpretationExisting physical activity prevalence has contributed to averting premature mortality across all countries. PFP has utility as an advocacy tool to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours. By making the case of what has been achieved, the prevented fraction can show the value of current investment and services, which might be conducive to political support.
fundingUK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, Heart Foundation Australia.
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