ArticlePloS one2020
Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Role of Machine Learning in Talent Identification for Team Sports: A Systematic Review.Journal of sports science & medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Visual search strategies and game knowledge in junior Australian rules football players: testing potential in talent identification and development.Frontiers in psychology · 2024Article
- Revisiting the 'Whys' and 'Hows' of the Warm-Up: Are We Asking the Right Questions?Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2024Article
- A framework for test measurement selection in athlete physical preparation.Frontiers in sports and active living · 2024Review
- Compounding endowment effects when trading draft picks in the Australian Football League.PloS one · 2024Article
- Article
- Deferring draft picks: Empirical analysis of the AFL draft.PloS one · 2024Article
- Valuing Australian football league draft picks.PloS one · 2023Article
- Optionality in Australian Football League draftee contracts.PloS one · 2023Article
- Future Directions and Considerations for Talent Identification in Australian Football.Frontiers in sports and active living · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Physical testing-based draft combines are undertaken across various sporting codes to inform talent selection. To determine the explanatory power of the Australian football league (AFL) draft combine, participants drafted between 1999-2016 (n = 1488) were assessed. Testing performance, draft selection order and playing position, AFL matches played, AFL player ranking points and AFL player rating points were collected as career outcomes. Boosted regression tree analysis revealed that position and draft selection order were the most explanatory variables of career outcomes. Linear modelling based on testing results is able to explain 4% of matches played and 3% of in-game performance measures. Each individual combine test explained <2% of the matches played outcome. Draft selection order demonstrated mixed results for career outcomes relative to playing position. For instance, key forwards and draft selection order were observed as a slight negative relationship using the AFL Player Ranking points career outcome measure. These findings indicate that the AFL draft combine is a poor measure for informing talent selection, thus providing minimal utility for the practices investigated in this study.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.