ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 64 citations in OpenAlex.
- Investigating a deterministic canonical model for tropical influenza.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A multi-season epidemic model with random genetic drift and transmissibility.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
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- Breadth of influenza A antibody cross-reactivity varies by virus isolation interval and subtype.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
- Tracking Seasonal Influenza Trends in South Tyrol During 2022/2023 Using Genomic Surveillance Data.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Epidemiology and Genetic Evolutionary Analysis of Influenza Virus Among Children in Hainan Island, China, 2021-2023.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Improving influenza forecast in the tropics and subtropics: a case study of Hong Kong.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Biases in Routine Influenza Surveillance Indicators Used to Monitor Infection Incidence and Recommendations for Improvement.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- An adaptive weight ensemble approach to forecast influenza activity in an irregular seasonality context.Nature communications · 2024Article
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- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study.iScience · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Influenza epidemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality every year worldwide. Currently, two influenza A subtypes, A(H1N1) and A(H3N2), and type B viruses co-circulate in humans and infection with one type/subtype could provide cross-protection against the others. However, it remains unclear how such ecologic competition via cross-immunity and antigenic mutations that allow immune escape impact influenza epidemic dynamics at the population level. Here we develop a comprehensive model-inference system and apply it to study the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the three influenza types/subtypes in Hong Kong, a city of global public health significance for influenza epidemic and pandemic control. Utilizing long-term influenza surveillance data since 1998, we are able to estimate the strength of cross-immunity between each virus-pairs, the timing and frequency of punctuated changes in population immunity in response to antigenic mutations in influenza viruses, and key epidemiological parameters over the last 20 years including the 2009 pandemic. We find evidence of cross-immunity in all types/subtypes, with strongest cross-immunity from A(H1N1) against A(H3N2). Our results also suggest that A(H3N2) may undergo antigenic mutations in both summers and winters and thus monitoring the virus in both seasons may be important for vaccine development. Overall, our study reveals intricate epidemiological interactions and underscores the importance of simultaneous monitoring of population immunity, incidence rates, and viral genetic and antigenic changes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.