ArticleScientific reports2020
Time series analysis of temporal trends in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome morbidity rate in China from 2005 to 2019.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in 31 provinces and municipalities of P.R. China and multi-factorial prediction of incidence.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal clustering and meteorological factors influencing HFRS incidence in mainland China, 2004-2021.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Hantaan virus activates Src family kinase and induces endothelial cell hyperpermeability via the TLR4/TRAF6 pathway.Journal of medical microbiology · 2025Article
- Investigating risk factors of hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome (HFRS) in Qingdao, Shandong province, China.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution and meteorological factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hubei province.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Transcriptomic analysis reveals key molecular signatures across recovery phases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.BMC medical genomics · 2024Article
- Spatial-temporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Trend analysis and prediction of gonorrhea in mainland China based on a hybrid time series model.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Long- and Short-Run Asymmetric Effects of Meteorological Parameters on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Heilongjiang: A Population-Based Retrospective Study.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
- Pain Self-Efficacy (PSEQ) score of <22 is associated with daily opioid use, back pain, disability, and PROMIS scores in patients presenting for spine surgery.The spine journal : official journal of the North American Spine Society · 2023Article
- Construction of a Hantaan Virus Phage Antibody Library and Screening for Potential Neutralizing Activity.Viruses · 2023Article
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- Comparative Immunoreactivity Analyses of Hantaan Virus Glycoprotein-Derived MHC-I Epitopes in Vaccination.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Forecasting the epidemiological trends of COVID-19 prevalence and mortality using the advancedEpidemiology and infection · 2020Article
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7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is seriously endemic in China with 70%~90% of the notified cases worldwide and showing an epidemic tendency of upturn in recent years. Early detection for its future epidemic trends plays a pivotal role in combating this threat. In this scenario, our study investigates the suitability for application in analyzing and forecasting the epidemic tendencies based on the monthly HFRS morbidity data from 2005 through 2019 using the nonlinear model-based self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) methods. The experimental results manifested that the SETAR and LSTAR approaches presented smaller values among the performance measures in both two forecasting subsamples, when compared with the most extensively used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method, and the former slightly outperformed the latter. Descriptive statistics showed an epidemic tendency of downturn with average annual percent change (AAPC) of -5.640% in overall HFRS, however, an upward trend with an AAPC = 1.213% was observed since 2016 and according to the forecasts using the SETAR, it would seemingly experience an outbreak of HFRS in China in December 2019. Remarkably, there were dual-peak patterns in HFRS incidence with a strong one occurring in November until January of the following year, additionally, a weak one in May and June annually. Therefore, the SETAR and LSTAR approaches may be a potential useful tool in analyzing the temporal behaviors of HFRS in China.
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