Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32536204›Full record

ArticleCirculation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology2020

Preprocedure Application of Machine Learning and Mechanistic Simulations Predicts Likelihood of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Following Pulmonary Vein Isolation.

Julie K Shade, Rheeda L Ali, Dante Basile, Dan Popescu, Tauseef Akhtar, Joseph E Marine, David D Spragg, Hugh Calkins, Natalia A Trayanova

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 72 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
72citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
10.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

72 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 101 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Computational modelling of biological systems now and then: revisiting tools and visions from the beginning of the century.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
    Review
  16. State of the Art of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Electrophysiology in 2025: A Scientific Statement of the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the ESC, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), and the ESC Working Group on E-Cardiology.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article

12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Julie K Shade *Alliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Rheeda L Ali *Alliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Dante BasileAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Dan PopescuAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Tauseef AkhtarDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine (T.A., J.E.M., D.D.S., H.C.), Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
Joseph E MarineDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine (T.A., J.E.M., D.D.S., H.C.), Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
David D SpraggDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine (T.A., J.E.M., D.D.S., H.C.), Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
Hugh CalkinsAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Natalia A TrayanovaAlliance for Cardiovascular Diagnostic and Treatment Innovation (J.K.S., R.L.A., D.B., D.P., H.C., N.A.T.), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Johns Hopkins University · US

Funding

Simulation Guidance of Ablation Therapy for Persistent Atrial FibrillationU01HL141074 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CALKINS, HUGH G, TRAYANOVA, NATALIA A. · 2018 to 2021
$3.1M
Infarct-related Ventricular Tachycardia Mechanisms: From Micro to ClinicalR01HL142496 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI TRAYANOVA, NATALIA A. · 2019 to 2022
$3.1M
Pre-Doctoral Training Program in Computational MedicineT32GM119998 · NIGMS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI MAC GABHANN, FEILIM C · 2017 to 2021
$1.5M
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL142496NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL141074NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM119998
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is an effective treatment strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but many experience AF recurrence and require repeat ablation procedures. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate a methodology that combines machine learning (ML) and personalized computational modeling to predict, before PVI, which patients are most likely to experience AF recurrence after PVI.

methodsThis single-center retrospective proof-of-concept study included 32 patients with documented paroxysmal AF who underwent PVI and had preprocedural late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. For each patient, a personalized computational model of the left atrium simulated AF induction via rapid pacing. Features were derived from pre-PVI late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance images and from results of simulations of AF induction. The most predictive features were used as input to a quadratic discriminant analysis ML classifier, which was trained, optimized, and evaluated with 10-fold nested cross-validation to predict the probability of AF recurrence post-PVI.

resultsIn our cohort, the ML classifier predicted probability of AF recurrence with an average validation sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 89%, respectively, and a validation area under the curve of 0.82. Dissecting the relative contributions of simulations of AF induction and raw images to the predictive capability of the ML classifier, we found that when only features from simulations of AF induction were used to train the ML classifier, its performance remained similar (validation area under the curve, 0.81). However, when only features extracted from raw images were used for training, the validation area under the curve significantly decreased (0.47).

conclusionsML and personalized computational modeling can be used together to accurately predict, using only pre-PVI late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance imaging scans as input, whether a patient is likely to experience AF recurrence following PVI, even when the patient cohort is small.

Indexed as

Diagnosis, Computer-AssistedMachine LearningMagnetic Resonance ImagingModels, CardiovascularPatient-Specific ModelingAction PotentialsAgedAtrial FibrillationCatheter AblationContrast MediaFemaleHeart RateHumansMaleMeglumineMiddle AgedContrast Mediagadobenic acidMeglumineOrganometallic Compoundsatrial fibrillationcomputational biologyheart atriamachine learningmagnetic resonance imaging

Identifiers

PMID32536204
PMCPMC7375930
OpenAlexW3034882473

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.