Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32535697›Full record

ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2020

A Framework for Network-Based Epidemiological Modeling of Tuberculosis Dynamics Using Synthetic Datasets.

Marissa Renardy, Denise E Kirschner

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Predicting the second wave of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Marissa RenardyDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Denise E KirschnerDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. kirschne@umich.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-1053-2591

Funding

Predicting protective T-cell responses in Tuberculosis using a systems biology approachR01AI123093 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI FLYNN, JOANNE L., KIRSCHNER, DENISE E · 2016 to 2020
$3.6M
A Multi-scale systems pharmacology approach to TB therapyU01HL131072 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI DARTOIS, VERONIQUE, FLYNN, JOANNE L. · 2016 to 2019
$2.9M
NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL131072NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI123093NIH HHS U01 HL131072
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We present a framework for discrete network-based modeling of TB epidemiology in US counties using publicly available synthetic datasets. We explore the dynamics of this modeling framework by simulating the hypothetical spread of disease over 2 years resulting from a single active infection in Washtenaw County, MI. We find that for sufficiently large transmission rates that active transmission outweighs reactivation, disease prevalence is sensitive to the contact weight assigned to transmissions between casual contacts (that is, contacts that do not share a household, workplace, school, or group quarter). Workplace and casual contacts contribute most to active disease transmission, while household, school, and group quarter contacts contribute relatively little. Stochastic features of the model result in significant uncertainty in the predicted number of infections over time, leading to challenges in model calibration and interpretation of model-based predictions. Finally, predicted infections were more localized by household location than would be expected if they were randomly distributed. This modeling framework can be refined in later work to study specific county and multi-county TB epidemics in the USA.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalComputational BiologyComputer SimulationContact TracingDatabases, FactualEpidemicsHumansMathematical ConceptsStochastic ProcessesSynthetic BiologySystems AnalysisTuberculosisUnited StatesEpidemiologyNetwork-based modelSynthetic populationTuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID32535697
PMCPMC8631185

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.