ArticleChest2020
Individualizing Risk Prediction for Positive Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing: Results From 11,672 Patients.
Article in Chest, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 129 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
129 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 210 citations in OpenAlex.
- Vaccination against influenza viruses reduces infection, not hospitalization or death, from respiratory COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of medical virology · 2024Pooled it
- An Elaboration on Sample Size Planning for Performing a One-Sample Sensitivity and Specificity Analysis by Basing on Calculations on a Specified 95% Confidence Interval Width.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Guideline
- The Association Between Previous Influenza Vaccination and COVID-19 Infection Risk and Severity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.American journal of preventive medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Disparities in COVID-19 Outcomes by Race, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status: A Systematic-Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2021Pooled it
- Gastroenterology manifestations and COVID-19 outcomes: A meta-analysis of 25,252 cohorts among the first and second waves.Journal of medical virology · 2021Pooled it
- Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19-Related Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths : A Systematic Review.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Pooled it
- The Association between Influenza Vaccination and the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Severe Illness, and Death: A Systematic Review of the Literature.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Melatonin effects on sleep quality and outcomes of COVID-19 patients: An open-label, randomized, controlled trial.Journal of medical virology · 2022Trial
- Trial
- Variable selection for prediction models of Omicron infection: Insights from two population-based cohort studies.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Article
- Predicting COVID-19 infection among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon: A multi-wave survey.PloS one · 2026Article
- Developing a prediction model for poor prognosis in MPA patients using initial admission examination results: a machine learning study from Southwest China.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- COVID-19 risk stratification among older adults: a machine learning approach to identify personal and health-related risk factors.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Personalized risk score prediction and testing policy adaptations of a COVID-19 population-based contact tracing network.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Pre-COVID health-related quality of life predicts symptoms and outcomes for patients with long COVID.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Person-Centered Web-Based Mobile Health System (Symptoms) for Reporting Symptoms in COVID-19 Vaccinated Individuals: Observational Study of System, Users, and Symptoms.JMIR formative research · 2024Observational
- Machine Learning Predicts Unplanned Care Escalations for Post-Anesthesia Care Unit Patients during the Perioperative Period: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.Journal of medical systems · 2024Article
- From Biased Selective Labels to Pseudo-Labels: An Expectation-Maximization Framework for Learning from Biased Decisions.Proceedings of machine learning research · 2024Article
- A method for managing scientific research project resource conflicts and predicting risks using BP neural networks.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Individualized Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mexico City Municipality during the First Six Waves of the Pandemic.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
69 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is sweeping the globe. Despite multiple case-series, actionable knowledge to tailor decision-making proactively is missing. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can a statistical model accurately predict infection with COVID-19? STUDY DESIGN AND
methodsWe developed a prospective registry of all patients tested for COVID-19 in Cleveland Clinic to create individualized risk prediction models. We focus here on the likelihood of a positive nasal or oropharyngeal COVID-19 test. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression algorithm was constructed that removed variables that were not contributing to the model's cross-validated concordance index. After external validation in a temporally and geographically distinct cohort, the statistical prediction model was illustrated as a nomogram and deployed in an online risk calculator.
resultsIn the development cohort, 11,672 patients fulfilled study criteria, including 818 patients (7.0%) who tested positive for COVID-19; in the validation cohort, 2295 patients fulfilled criteria, including 290 patients who tested positive for COVID-19. Male, African American, older patients, and those with known COVID-19 exposure were at higher risk of being positive for COVID-19. Risk was reduced in those who had pneumococcal polysaccharide or influenza vaccine or who were on melatonin, paroxetine, or carvedilol. Our model had favorable discrimination (c-statistic = 0.863 in the development cohort and 0.840 in the validation cohort) and calibration. We present sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value at different prediction cutoff points. The calculator is freely available at https://riskcalc.org/COVID19.
interpretationPrediction of a COVID-19 positive test is possible and could help direct health-care resources. We demonstrate relevance of age, race, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics in COVID-19 susceptibility and suggest a potential modifying role of certain common vaccinations and drugs that have been identified in drug-repurposing studies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.