ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2020
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.
Abstract read
In one paragraph
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 423 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
423citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
423 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of mHealth Apps for Maternal Health Care Delivery: Systematic Review of Systematic Reviews.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- The impact of geo-environmental factors on global COVID-19 transmission: A review of evidence and methodology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Cost-effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of COVID-19: Systematic review of 85 modelling studies.Journal of global health · 2022Pooled it
- COVID-19 pandemic-related mortality, infection, symptoms, complications, comorbidities, and other aspects of physical health among healthcare workers globally: An umbrella review.International journal of nursing studies · 2022Pooled it
- Post-exposure prophylaxis with SA58 (anti-SARS-COV-2 monoclonal antibody) nasal spray for the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 in healthy adult workers: a randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled clinical study.Emerging microbes & infections · 2023Trial
- Trial
- Comparing the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Resistance Evolving Across Regions in the Americas with Differing Approaches to Public Health.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Trajectory of irritability in children and youth in Ontario, Canada, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.JCPP advances · 2026Article
- Risk mapping novel respiratory pathogens with large-scale dynamic contact networks.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- OxyJet CPAP: an electricity-free low-cost emergency respiratory support device.Biomedical engineering online · 2026Article
- Factors Associated with Maternal Mortality from COVID-19 in Pernambuco, Brazil (2020-2021): A Case-Control Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Risk Assessment of Emergency Medical Resource Exhaustion Under Major Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Based on Discrete-Event Simulation Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Exploring the correlates of COVID-19 vaccination inequity: a global analysis using machine learning from a health economic lens.Frontiers in health services · 2026Article
- Toward Setting Minimum and Optimal Data to Report for Malaria Molecular Surveillance with Targeted Sequencing: The "What" and "Why".The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Review
- Community pharmacy resiliency during Covid-19 pandemic in Iran: A qualitative study.Exploratory research in clinical and social pharmacy · 2025Article
- Disruptions of healthcare visits and viral suppression for people living with HIV during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
363 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
49 authors.
Patrick G T Walker *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-9596-9628
Charles Whittaker *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5003-2575
Oliver J Watson *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2374-0741
Marc BaguelinMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3867-1953
Peter WinskillMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3001-4959
Arran HamletMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0871-0640
Bimandra A DjafaaraMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7481-2624
Zulma CucunubáMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Daniela Olivera MesaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6190-2855
Will GreenMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8556-0389
Hayley ThompsonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9314-9458
Shevanthi NayagamMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8030-3380
Kylie E C AinslieMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5419-7206
Sangeeta BhatiaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Samir BhattMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0891-4611
Adhiratha BoonyasiriMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6549-9621
Olivia BoydMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8858-1660
Nicholas F BrazeauMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3976-7965
Lorenzo CattarinoMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3975-550X
Gina Cuomo-DannenburgMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6821-0352
Amy DigheMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5024-8061
Christl A DonnellyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Ilaria DorigattiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9959-0706
Sabine L van ElslandMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rich FitzJohnMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8888-3837
Han FuMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8934-7347
Katy A M GaythorpeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3734-9081
Lily GeidelbergMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8057-1844
Nicholas GrasslyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6067-4507
David HawMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9228-0542
Sarah HayesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9976-6537
Wes HinsleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4597-1746
Natsuko ImaiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4218-9716
David JorgensenMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4982-3764
Edward KnockMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1135-9652
Daniel LaydonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4270-3321
Swapnil MishraMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Gemma Nedjati-GilaniMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5723-5028
Lucy C OkellMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7202-6873
H Juliette UnwinMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9120-4003
Robert VerityMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3902-8567
Michaela VollmerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6970-7192
Caroline E WaltersMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1882-0886
Haowei WangMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Yuanrong WangMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Xiaoyue XiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
David G LallooLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7680-2200
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-1154-8093
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk a.ghani@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-0007-4910
Funding
Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/R024855/1Medical Research Council MR/V038109/1
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.
Indexed as
Developing CountriesGlobal HealthPovertyCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19HumansPandemicsPatient Acceptance of Health CarePneumonia, ViralPublic Health
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390
Registered trials
None linked
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.