Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32531029›Full record

Observational studyEuropean heart journal. Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy2021

Assessing absolute stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation using a risk factor-based approach.

Christina J-Y Lee, Anne Pernille Toft-Petersen, Brice Ozenne, Matthew Phelps, Jonas Bjerring Olesen, Patrick T Ellinor, Gunnar Gislason, Gregory Y H Lip, Christian Torp-Pedersen, Thomas Alexander Gerds

Open access · bronzeAbstract readObservational Study
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In one paragraph

Observational study in European heart journal. Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
2.1field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
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  8. Contemporary management of atrial fibrillation and the predicted vs. absolute risk of ischaemic stroke despite treatment: a report from ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Christina J-Y LeeDepartment of Cardiology and Clinical Research, Nordsjællands Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Dyrehavevej 29, 3400 Hillerød, Denmark.
Anne Pernille Toft-PetersenDepartment of Cardiology and Clinical Research, Nordsjællands Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Dyrehavevej 29, 3400 Hillerød, Denmark.
Brice OzenneNeurobiology Research Unit, Rigshospitalet and University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Matthew PhelpsThe Danish Heart Foundation, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jonas Bjerring OlesenCopenhagen University Hospital Herlev and Gentofte, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Patrick T EllinorCardiovascular Disease Initiative, The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Gunnar GislasonThe Danish Heart Foundation, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Gregory Y H LipLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Christian Torp-Pedersen
Thomas Alexander GerdsThe Danish Heart Foundation, Copenhagen, Denmark.
University of Copenhagen · DKBroad Institute · USGentofte Hospital · DKUniversity of Liverpool · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimTo assess the risk of stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on risk factor combinations of the CHA2DS2-VASc score. METHODS AND

resultsUsing nationwide Danish registries, patients with AF were included from 1997 to 2015 in this retrospective observational study. A multiple logistic regression, including interactions of history of stroke with age at AF, calendar year of AF, and the CHA2DS2-VASc score risk factors (congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, vascular disease, and female sex) were used to predict the personalized risks of stroke within 1 year. A total of 147 842 patients with AF were included in the study cohort (median age 76 years, range 20-100 years, 51% females). Within the first year, 6% of the cohort were diagnosed with stroke. The predicted personalized 1-year absolute risk of stroke varied widely within each CHA2DS2-VASc score. To estimate the personalized risk of stroke an online calculator was created, the Calculator of Absolute Stroke Risk (CARS), which allows calculation of all the possible combinations of the CHA2DS2-VASc score (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/riskvisrr/).

conclusionCalculation of the individual risk using a risk factor-based approach as opposed to using average risk for a particular CHA2DS2-VASc score can improve risk estimates. Furthermore, CARS can assist in the communication of the stroke risk for a more evidence-based shared decision-making of whether to initiate oral anticoagulation therapy.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationStrokeAdultAgedAged, 80 and overDenmarkFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRegistriesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsThromboembolismYoung AdultAnticoagulation therapyAtrial fibrillationCHA2DS2-VASC scorePersonalized riskStrokeThromboembolism

Identifiers

PMID32531029
OpenAlexW3034313073

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.