Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32530947›Full record

SynthesisPloS one2020

A systematic review of machine learning models for predicting outcomes of stroke with structured data.

Wenjuan Wang, Martin Kiik, Niels Peek, Vasa Curcin, Iain J Marshall, Anthony G Rudd, Yanzhong Wang, Abdel Douiri, Charles D Wolfe, Benjamin Bray

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 15 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
91citing papers in PubMed, 15 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

91 citing papers in PubMed, 15 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  9. Machine learning prediction models in orthopedic surgery: A systematic review in transparent reporting.Journal of orthopaedic research : official publication of the Orthopaedic Research Society · 2022
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  11. Systematic review of prediction models for postacute care destination decision-making.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2021
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31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Wenjuan WangSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-1879-7332
Martin KiikSchool of Medical Education, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Niels PeekDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Vasa CurcinSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Iain J MarshallSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Anthony G RuddSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Yanzhong WangSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Abdel DouiriSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Charles D WolfeSchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
Benjamin BraySchool of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Science and Medicine, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Department of HealthMedical Research Council MR/N015185/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

background and purposeMachine learning (ML) has attracted much attention with the hope that it could make use of large, routinely collected datasets and deliver accurate personalised prognosis. The aim of this systematic review is to identify and critically appraise the reporting and developing of ML models for predicting outcomes after stroke.

methodsWe searched PubMed and Web of Science from 1990 to March 2019, using previously published search filters for stroke, ML, and prediction models. We focused on structured clinical data, excluding image and text analysis. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019127154).

resultsEighteen studies were eligible for inclusion. Most studies reported less than half of the terms in the reporting quality checklist. The most frequently predicted stroke outcomes were mortality (7 studies) and functional outcome (5 studies). The most commonly used ML methods were random forests (9 studies), support vector machines (8 studies), decision trees (6 studies), and neural networks (6 studies). The median sample size was 475 (range 70-3184), with a median of 22 predictors (range 4-152) considered. All studies evaluated discrimination with thirteen using area under the ROC curve whilst calibration was assessed in three. Two studies performed external validation. None described the final model sufficiently well to reproduce it.

conclusionsThe use of ML for predicting stroke outcomes is increasing. However, few met basic reporting standards for clinical prediction tools and none made their models available in a way which could be used or evaluated. Major improvements in ML study conduct and reporting are needed before it can meaningfully be considered for practice.

Indexed as

Machine LearningHumansModels, StatisticalPrognosisStroke

Identifiers

PMID32530947
PMCPMC7292406

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.