Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32530761›Full record

ArticleJournal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology2020

Improved Risk Prediction Calculator for Sentinel Node Positivity in Patients With Melanoma: The Melanoma Institute Australia Nomogram.

Serigne N Lo, Jiawen Ma, Richard A Scolyer, Lauren E Haydu, Jonathan R Stretch, Robyn P M Saw, Omgo E Nieweg, Kerwin F Shannon, Andrew J Spillane, Sydney Ch'ng and 4 more

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 81 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
81citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

81 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 159 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  11. A deep learning-clinical nomogram hybrid for predicting sentinel lymph node metastasis in melanoma.Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV · 2026
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21 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Serigne N LoMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Jiawen MaMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Richard A ScolyerMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Lauren E HayduDepartment of Surgical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX.
Jonathan R StretchMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Robyn P M SawMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Omgo E NiewegMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Kerwin F ShannonMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Andrew J SpillaneMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Sydney Ch'ngMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Graham J MannMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Jeffrey E GershenwaldDepartment of Surgical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX.
John F ThompsonMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Alexander H R VareyMelanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, North Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
The University of Sydney · AUMelanoma Institute Australia · AUThe University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center · USRoyal North Shore Hospital · AU

Funding

The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center SPORE in MelanomaP50CA221703 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI DAVIES, MICHAEL · 2019 to 2023
$10.3M
NCI NIH HHS P50 CA221703
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeFor patients with primary cutaneous melanoma, the risk of sentinel node (SN) metastasis varies according to several clinicopathologic parameters. Patient selection for SN biopsy can be assisted by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) and ASCO/Society of Surgical Oncology (SSO) guidelines and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) online nomogram. We sought to develop an improved online risk calculator using alternative clinicopathologic parameters to more accurately predict SN positivity. PATIENTS AND

methodsData from 3,477 patients with melanoma who underwent SN biopsy at Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) were analyzed. A new nomogram was developed by replacing body site and Clark level from the MSKCC model with mitotic rate, melanoma subtype, and lymphovascular invasion. The predictive performance of the new nomogram was externally validated using data from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (n = 3,496).

resultsThe MSKCC model receiver operating characteristic curve had a predictive accuracy of 67.7% (95% CI, 65.3% to 70.0%). The MIA model had a predictive accuracy of 73.9% (95% CI, 71.9% to 75.9%), a 9.2% increase in accuracy over the MSKCC model (

conclusionA robust nomogram was developed that more accurately estimates the risk of SN positivity in patients with melanoma than currently available methods. The model only requires the input of 6 widely available clinicopathologic parameters. Importantly, the number of patients undergoing unnecessary SN biopsy would be significantly reduced compared with use of the MSKCC nomogram or the NCCN or ASCO/SSO guidelines, without losing sensitivity. An online calculator is available at www.melanomarisk.org.au.

Indexed as

NomogramsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaFemaleHumansLymph NodesMelanomaMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk FactorsSentinel Lymph Node BiopsyYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID32530761
PMCPMC7430218
OpenAlexW3035676226

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.