ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2020
Prediction of Epidemic Peak and Infected Cases for COVID-19 Disease in Malaysia, 2020.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prediction Models for Public Health Containment Measures on COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Artificial Intelligence for COVID-19: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- Article
- Predicting the distribution of COVID-19 through CGAN-Taking Macau as an example.Frontiers in big data · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- A network analysis and support vector regression approaches for visualising and predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Probabilistic Approach to COVID-19 Data Analysis and Forecasting Future Outbreaks Using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Generating High-Granularity COVID-19 Territorial Early Alerts Using Emergency Medical Services and Machine Learning.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Short-Term and Long-Term COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting Revisited with the Emergence of OMICRON Variant in Jordan.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 Patients and Application to an Artificial Intelligence System for Disease Surveillance.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Spatial Dynamics and Multiscale Regression Modelling of Population Level Indicators for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 Case Trends Using SARIMA Models during the Third Wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Prediction of COVID-19 Data Using Hybrid Modeling Approaches.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Artificial Intelligence for Forecasting the Prevalence of COVID-19 Pandemic: An Overview.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Application of machine learning in the prediction of COVID-19 daily new cases: A scoping review.Heliyon · 2021Article
- Article
- Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The coronavirus COVID-19 has recently started to spread rapidly in Malaysia. The number of total infected cases has increased to 3662 on 05 April 2020, leading to the country being placed under lockdown. As the main public concern is whether the current situation will continue for the next few months, this study aims to predict the epidemic peak using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, with incorporation of the mortality cases. The infection rate was estimated using the Genetic Algorithm (GA), while the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model was used to provide short-time forecasting of the number of infected cases. The results show that the estimated infection rate is 0.228 ± 0.013, while the basic reproductive number is 2.28 ± 0.13. The epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Malaysia could be reached on 26 July 2020, with an uncertain period of 30 days (12 July-11 August). Possible interventions by the government to reduce the infection rate by 25% over two or three months would delay the epidemic peak by 30 and 46 days, respectively. The forecasting results using the ANFIS model show a low Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.041; a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.45%; and a high coefficient of determination (R
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Registered trials
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