Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32518246›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Deep Learning for Improved Risk Prediction in Surgical Outcomes.

Ali Jalali, Hannah Lonsdale, Nhue Do, Jacquelin Peck, Monesha Gupta, Shelby Kutty, Sharon R Ghazarian, Jeffrey P Jacobs, Mohamed Rehman, Luis M Ahumada

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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  5. Article
  6. Role of artificial intelligence in congenital heart disease.World journal of clinical pediatrics · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ali Jalali *Predictive Analytics, Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA. jalali@jhmi.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9894-3071
Hannah Lonsdale *Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.
Nhue Do *Pediatric Cardiac Surgery, Department of Surgery at Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37240, USA.
Jacquelin PeckDepartment of Anesthesiology at Mount Sinai Hospital, Miami Beach, FL, 33140, USA.
Monesha GuptaDivision of Cardiology at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2175-9393
Shelby Kutty *Department of Pediatrics, at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA.
Sharon R GhazarianHealth Informatics Core, Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.
Jeffrey P JacobsUnaffiliated, St. Petersburg, FL, USA.
Mohamed Rehman *Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.
Luis M Ahumada *Predictive Analytics, Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Norwood surgical procedure restores functional systemic circulation in neonatal patients with single ventricle congenital heart defects, but this complex procedure carries a high mortality rate. In this study we address the need to provide an accurate patient specific risk prediction for one-year postoperative mortality or cardiac transplantation and prolonged length of hospital stay with the purpose of assisting clinicians and patients' families in the preoperative decision making process. Currently available risk prediction models either do not provide patient specific risk factors or only predict in-hospital mortality rates. We apply machine learning models to predict and calculate individual patient risk for mortality and prolonged length of stay using the Pediatric Heart Network Single Ventricle Reconstruction trial dataset. We applied a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation method to impute missing data and then fed the selected variables to multiple machine learning models. The individual risk of mortality or cardiac transplantation calculation produced by our deep neural network model demonstrated 89 ± 4% accuracy and 0.95 ± 0.02 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The C-statistics results for prediction of prolonged length of stay were 85 ± 3% accuracy and AUROC 0.94 ± 0.04. These predictive models and calculator may help to inform clinical and organizational decision making.

Indexed as

Deep LearningHospital MortalityDecision Making, OrganizationalHeart VentriclesHumansHypoplastic Left Heart SyndromeInfantInfant, NewbornLength of StayMarkov ChainsModels, StatisticalMonte Carlo MethodNeural Networks, ComputerNorwood ProceduresRisk

Identifiers

PMID32518246
PMCPMC7283236

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.