ArticleCMAJ open
Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Canada, 2019-2030: a modelling study.
Open access · diamondAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph
Article in CMAJ open. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
42citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
6.3field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 65 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Markov Model Unveiling the Impact of Resmetirom on the Natural History of MASLD Patients: A Sistematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review on pharmacokinetics, cardiovascular outcomes and safety profiles of statins in cirrhosis.BMC gastroenterology · 2021Pooled it
- Cardiometabolic comorbidity and health outcomes of persons with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in Ontario, Canada.Canadian liver journal · 2026Article
- Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease assessment and management: Clinical practice guidance from the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver.Canadian liver journal · 2026Article
- The Hepatic Transcriptomes of Two Mouse Models of Liver Fibrosis Reveal Shared Molecular Patterns Associated with a Common Dysregulation of Folate Metabolism.The Journal of nutrition · 2026Article
- Sex differences in the prevalence and cardiometabolic risk profiles of steatotic liver disease: A Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging analysis.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2026Article
- Prevalence and severity of MASLD and fibrosis using transient elastography: A cross-sectional screening in Lower Mainland, British Columbia, Canada.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Barriers and facilitators to liver fibrosis screening: Perspectives and practices of Canadian primary care physicians.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Evaluation of a novel albumin platelet product (APP) fibrosis index and three non-invasive fibrosis indices in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Post-liver transplant mortality in Canada: A retrospective analysis and quality assurance study in British Columbia.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- CD8 T Cell Hyperfunction and Reduced Tumour Control in Murine Models of Advanced Liver Disease.European journal of immunology · 2025Article
- Machine learning models using non-invasive tests & B-mode ultrasound to predict liver-related outcomes in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A retrospective database analysis to understand treatment patterns and outcomes of intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Alberta, Canada (A-CAPTAIN study).Journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2025Article
- Effects of GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy on resolution of steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Cross-sectional Study of Resident Physician Knowledge and Perceptions Regarding MASLD in Canada.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Article
- Adiposity Phenotypes and Associated Cardiometabolic Risk Profile in the Inuit Population of Nunavik.Nutrients · 2024Article
- Identifying patients with diagnosed cirrhosis in administrative health databases: a validation study.Canadian liver journal · 2024Article
- Projected Healthcare System Cost Burden of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Canada.Gastro hep advances · 2024Article
- Comparison of different definitions of metabolic syndrome and their associations with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a retrospective study.Canadian liver journal · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Mark G SwainDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Alnoor RamjiDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Keyur PatelDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Giada SebastianiDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Abdel Aziz ShaheenDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Edward TamDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Paul MarottaDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Magdy ElkhashabDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Harpreet S BajajDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
Chris EstesDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo. cestes@cdafound.org.
Homie RazaviDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Swain, Shaheen), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Gastroenterology (Ramji), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Patel), University Hospital Network, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (Sebastiani), McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Que.; LAIR Centre (Tam), Vancouver, BC; Division of Gastroenterology (Marotta), Department of Medicine, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont.; Toronto Liver Centre (Elkhashab), Toronto, Ont.; LMC Diabetes and Endocrinology Brampton (Bajaj), Brampton, Ont.; Leadership Sinai Centre for Diabetes (Bajaj), Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ont.; Center for Disease Analysis Foundation (Estes, Razavi), Lafayette, Colo.
University of British Columbia · CA
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada.
methodsWe used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases.
resultsThe model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600.
interpretationIncreasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected.
Indexed as
Cost of IllnessAgedCanadaFemaleHistory, 21st CenturyHumansIncidenceLiver NeoplasmsLiver TransplantationMaleMarkov ChainsMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalMorbidityMortalityNon-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390
Registered trials
None linked
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.